The early euphoria surrounding the launch of Operation Roaring Lion has given way to frustration and growing pessimism in Israel, as officials increasingly doubt the chances of regime change in Iran.
At the start of the war, one of the objectives discussed in Israel was the possibility of toppling the Iranian regime. But officials now say the leadership in Tehran appears stable, the idea of a Kurdish-led ground incursion has been shelved, and those taking to the streets are not regime opponents but members of the Basij militia.
US President Donald Trump
Judging by remarks from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier Tuesday, Israeli leaders are also preparing the public for the possibility that the war will not end with the fall of the ayatollahs’ regime.
“We aspire to bring the Iranian people to remove the yoke of tyranny. Ultimately, that depends on them,” Netanyahu said. “But there is no doubt that through the actions taken so far, we are breaking their bones, and our hand is still extended.”
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Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump
(Photo: Atta Kenare/ AFP, Joe Raedle/ AFP, Anna Moneymaker/ AFP)
“If we succeed together with the Iranian people, we will bring about a permanent end, if such things exist in the life of nations. We will bring change and are already bringing about a tremendous change in Israel’s standing,” he added.
Government officials say the central objective of the war, as repeatedly stated by Netanyahu, is to create conditions that would allow the Iranian public to determine its own future.
IDF strikes targets in Iran
(Video: IDF)
“We are still waiting and continuing operations to make that happen,” officials said.
Despite the growing pessimism, Israeli officials argue that the campaign has already pushed Iran back years, both in its nuclear program and in its ability to produce ballistic missiles.
“The chances of regime change at the moment are not high, but it is not over,” one official familiar with the discussions said.
The official added that Iran had suffered a severe strategic blow.
“Do not be impressed by statements coming from the Iranians,” the official said. “They are fanatics, but their system is in ashes. They have no navy. They have no air force. They have no defense industries. We severely damaged the infrastructure. It will be difficult for them to pay salaries. Do not underestimate the strategic damage. There is much that is still unknown and has not yet been published.”
According to Israeli officials, Tehran may portray the war as a victory if the regime survives, but they insist the damage inflicted on Iran has been substantial.
“They are fanatics, and from their perspective, if the regime does not fall, they have won,” the official said. “But we have pushed them back years.”
In Israel, statements by U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the war may end soon are interpreted largely as an attempt to calm surging global oil prices.
“The Americans are not stupid. They did not enter this war only to come out with Iran strengthened,” officials said. “There will be more heavy blows in Iran. The last word has not yet been spoken.”
Officials also said Trump did not launch such a major campaign only to halt it after two weeks and leave the region vulnerable.
“There cannot be a final word if Iran emerges strengthened,” one official said. “It must be given another chance. Trump has proven himself a strategist. He and Israel are preparing more surprises in this campaign.”
Trump has hinted that the war could end soon, but Israeli officials say it will not end immediately. Current assessments in Israel suggest the conflict will last at least two more weeks, though officials acknowledge that timelines in wars often prove unreliable.
Some believe Trump may wait for a decisive development before ending the fighting, possibly the killing of Mojtaba Khamenei, who was chosen to replace his father as Iran’s supreme leader after he was killed at the start of the war.
Israeli officials say the campaign could end suddenly, but emphasize that only one person will ultimately decide when and how the fighting stops: President Trump.
For that reason, Israel is pressing ahead with its military campaign, aiming to destroy as many of Iran’s missile launchers as possible before any ceasefire.
Officials estimate that about 80% of Iran’s launchers have already been destroyed, with the goal of reaching 90% to 95%.