Exactly four years have passed since Russia’s invasion deep into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and for much of the world, the war now unfolds in the background, almost as routine. Over time, in large part because of advanced technologies such as the groundbreaking use of drones, the conflict has become a largely static war of attrition, with neither side able to significantly alter the overall picture.
Russian forces have captured about 20% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory, but at enormous cost. Ukrainian troops continue to defend their lines with determination and ingenuity, yet have been unable to mount a major offensive to retake the areas seized by Russia.
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(Photo: REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina, REUTERS/Gleb Garanich, AFP, Oleg Petrasiuk/Press Service of the 24th King Danylo Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS)
Putin’s campaign against the West
Four years into the campaign, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not view the war as a failure. On the contrary, in his view, it is further proof that Russia can endure more pain than what he regards as a weak West in pursuit of its objectives, without stopping or retreating.
Putin is aware that U.S. and British intelligence accurately predicted his moves in 2022. In his assessment, however, they failed to grasp the extent of his willingness to sacrifice vast state resources for a territorial gain that would ultimately subordinate Ukraine to Russia.
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Ukraine has built a thriving arms industry. Scene of a Ukrainian strike in Russia’s Belgorod region
(Photo: Reuters)
He now frames the conflict as a historic campaign against the West, which he believes seeks to weaken and dismantle Russia. For that reason, surrender or compromise is not an option. Even estimates that Russia has suffered nearly 1.2 million dead and wounded on the battlefield — a figure unparalleled since World War II — have not shifted his position.
The return of President Donald Trump to the White House has fueled hopes in Moscow of a dramatic rift between Washington and Brussels that would weaken Europe and NATO, deepen divisions and serve Russian interests.
At home, however, Russia’s economic situation is deteriorating, posing a significant challenge to Putin and to the country’s ability to sustain the war. Russia is operating a full-fledged war economy, with the military sector receiving massive budget infusions while the civilian sector — the backbone of the real economy — withers. Ordinary Russians face high interest rates and crushing inflation.
For now, the economy is holding up, but at a steep price. Defense spending consumes nearly 40% of the federal budget, debt payments and the deficit are rising, and forecasts for oil export revenues are bleak.
At present, Putin appears to believe — or to be betting — that Ukraine will eventually lose resolve and collapse under steady Russian attrition. He is counting on widening cracks in the West and hoping that a Ukrainian collapse will come long before any collapse of Russia’s economy. It is a highly risky gamble.
Zelensky’s dual challenge
For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the mere fact that he remains in office and that his country continues to stand — and even strike deep inside Russia — is a remarkable achievement, one few predicted on the eve of the invasion in 2022.
Many Ukrainians and Western supporters regard Zelensky as a hero. He refused to flee in the early days of the invasion despite entreaties from Washington and London, displaying leadership and courage that helped unite the nation. He urged the West to trust him and supply advanced weapons systems, and largely secured that support as Ukraine’s military repeatedly inflicted damage and humiliation on Russian forces on land, at sea and in the air. Kyiv did not fall, and Ukraine’s resilience helped persuade Western governments to back it militarily and economically.
The costs for Ukraine have been severe. About 20% of its territory remains under Russian control. More than half a million Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded. Cities have suffered widespread destruction, the economy has been paralyzed and energy infrastructure has been relentlessly targeted by Russian strikes. Millions of Ukrainian refugees remain abroad, and the prolonged war has left many exhausted.
With Trump’s return to the White House, Zelensky’s challenge has grown more complex. He must now contend with a nearly hostile factor in Washington and mounting pressure for a compromise that would end the war. Domestically, he faces increasing scrutiny, including corruption scandals involving close associates and calls for elections.
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Scene of a Russian strike in Kyiv. Twenty percent of the country’s territory has been captured
(Photo: Reuters)
Despite all this, Zelensky has managed to endure and keep the war high on the international agenda. Ukraine has been granted candidate status for membership in the European Union, received massive Western security and economic aid packages, and emerged as a security asset for Europe, with a battle-tested and expanding defense industry that now produces most of the weapons for its armed forces, including drones and ballistic missiles.
Still, the future remains uncertain. Ukraine has not been defeated — a dramatic achievement in itself — but it continues to fight for its borders, its economy and its European future. For Zelensky, Ukraine’s continued sovereign existence is the first victory. The question is what further price it will have to pay to complete the task in a complex, chaotic and unpredictable international environment.