Israel could face another October 7 in 2026, but this time the attack would come out of the Palestinian territories in Judea and Samaria, according to Dr. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA).
“It is not impossible to imagine a scenario where the thousands and thousands of weapons in Judea and Samaria … and the incitement and indoctrination by the Palestinian Authority itself, which began before October 7, but really was ratcheted up after October 7 … could possibly result, God forbid, in another October 7,” Diker said.
Diker spoke this week on the ILTV Podcast, where he focused on security and geopolitical predictions for 2026. One of his major concerns, he said, is a large-scale ballistic missile attack by Iran. That scenario was reportedly a key part of the discussion between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump during their meeting at Mar-a-Lago earlier this week.
According to Diker, at least 40% of Iran’s missile inventory was not destroyed in the June 2025 joint attack carried out by the United States and Israel.
“The president came out and said in his own words that if he sees that they’re rebuilding their ballistic missile program, which Israel brought the determined and absolute intelligence on, then ‘we would have to knock them down,’” Diker explained. “Those are President Trump’s words. And I think they were music to the ears of Prime Minister Netanyahu.”
Watch these previous podcasts:
Diker said, however, that Israel likely does not need to worry about a preemptive strike from Iran at this stage. He pointed to widespread unrest inside the country, with people already rioting against the government. According to Diker, the Iranian regime is “well aware” of Israel’s capabilities, and although it often uses aggressive rhetoric, it is unlikely to escalate the situation directly.
A third concern for Diker heading into 2026 is the possibility of a coordinated air, ground, and sea attack by multiple Israeli adversaries at once. He said such an assault would likely be led by the Iranian regime and carried out through its proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah.
Although significant damage has been inflicted on these proxy organizations, Diker cautioned that “they are still alive and kicking.”
“Why has it taken so long for Hamas to be disarmed?” Diker asked. “Because they’re jihadis. They have said publicly in Arabic, no Middle Eastern force will disarm them militarily.”
He said Hamas continues to try to “bamboozle the West” in order to remain in power. While Gaza appears to be in a period of transition, Diker stressed that Hamas still firmly controls the territory.
“They’ve changed their uniforms. They changed their locations. They still control the neighborhoods. They still control the humanitarian aid,” he said.
This reality, Diker explained, is one of the main reasons Israel has been hesitant to move to Stage Two of Trump’s 20-point plan. That stage would involve further Israeli troop withdrawals and the implementation of an international stabilization force.
Diker said Israel has added a new dimension to its national defense strategy since October 7, one centered on prevention.
“If Israel senses there is any movement, whether it’s threat level one or threat level 10, Israel will act and destroy it,” Diker stressed. “That is the meaning of a new national security concept element called prevention… Israel has completely rethought and redesigned its national security concept to prevent the possibility of any move against it on all borders.”
He warned that Western leaders must clearly understand the nature of the conflict.
“This is not a political conflict. This is not a territorial conflict. This, from the point of view of our enemies, the Iranian regime, all of its terror proxies, the Sunni extremist regimes, the Turkish regime, this is jihad,” Diker said.
And according to Diker, jihad continues until victory or martyrdom.
Watch the full conversation: