Since the United States and Qatar announced the cease-fire and hostage release deal on Wednesday, a noticeable gap has emerged between perspectives in Israel and those in Gaza and the international community.
While many in Israel view the cease-fire as a temporary measure likely to end in renewed fighting with U.S. support after six weeks, Hamas and others see it as effectively signaling the war's conclusion.
At some point during the agreement, mediators will have to bridge this divide or risk the fragile understanding collapsing. This disparity is particularly evident in the accelerated discussions about rebuilding Gaza. It is widely recognized that substantial reconstruction can only occur under a lasting cease-fire and a governance framework in Gaza to oversee the inflow of funds and project management.
Gaza’s economy has been decimated over the past 15 months. GDP plummeted by more than 80% last year, amounting to just $90 million. Without significant reconstruction, Gaza’s already struggling economy will remain stagnant.
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According to projections, Gaza's reconstruction is estimated to range between $40 billion and $80 billion. Precise figures will only be available unless teams can assess the damage on the ground. According to the United Nations, clearing the estimated 42 million tons of rubble alone will take at least 10 months and cost approximately $1.2 billion.
Satellite images from last month reveal that about 70% of Gaza’s residential buildings—over 170,000 structures—have been destroyed. Infrastructure damages are estimated at $20 billion, including the loss of 68% of the road network. Water supply has dropped to a quarter of its pre-October 7 levels, and hundreds of public facilities, including schools and hospitals, have been severely damaged.
Gaza’s health sector requires an estimated $15 billion for reconstruction, according to local health officials. The situation underscores the monumental scope of the rebuilding challenge, even if the cease-fire holds and governance issues are resolved.
Uncertain funding and international will
The timeline for launching a reconstruction project in Gaza remains unclear. Questions linger over where the funding will come from and whether the international community has the motivation to invest.
Wealthy Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, are expected to play a key role but are unlikely to shoulder the burden alone. Their investments often seek economic returns, regional stability or influence, but rebuilding Gaza presents unique challenges.
Previous wars in Gaza have shown that investments in the region are fraught with risks, as periodic hostilities disrupt progress. The economic benefits of investing in Gaza are also limited, aside from the potential development of offshore gas fields along its coast, which could attract interest.
However, the Gulf states have learned over the past 15 months that the war’s volatility can extend to their own borders, involving actors such as the Houthis and Iran. This realization may motivate them to contribute funds, hoping to stabilize Gaza and reduce regional tensions.
As the cease-fire unfolds, whether these efforts materialize will hinge on international collaboration, clear governance, and sustained peace—factors that remain tenuous at best.