The outcome of the war with Iran, at least for now, is reducing the chances of normalization and alliances between Israel and Arab and moderate Muslim states, according to senior Israeli officials familiar with the issue.
While Israel gained some credit for its determination in confronting the Islamic Republic, the overall result suggests Gulf states may now seek closer ties with Iran and Turkey — not out of preference, but necessity.
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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed
(Photo: Nathan Howard/AP, AP)
Still, one country stands out: the United Arab Emirates. Security cooperation and shared interests between Israel and the UAE were significantly strengthened during the war. Behind the scenes, ties may deepen further, but publicly, normalization appears to have taken a hit.
A senior Israeli official said: “When you look at the end of the war, Gulf states knew why they did not join the strikes on Iran and instead absorbed Iranian ballistic missiles and drones with near restraint. Behind the scenes, they urged the Americans to continue and topple the regime, but outwardly they projected weakness. They knew exactly why.”
The official added: “They assessed the conflict would not be resolved and that the United States would not finish the job, leaving them exposed. They feared Iranian retaliation if they joined Israel and the U.S. They assumed that by staying on the sidelines, they might receive some leniency from Iran. But they will pay a price for that in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iranian strike at Fujairah port in the United Arab Emirates
The UAE has already paid a price. The federation of seven emirates emerged as the most vulnerable to Iran. Qatar maintained a degree of dialogue with Tehran, Bahrain benefited from Saudi backing, and Saudi Arabia had already aligned along a Turkish-Pakistani-Egyptian axis, with some influence from the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Israeli official said it is difficult to avoid criticizing Gulf states’ conduct during the war. “The outcome is less favorable for now. It will reduce the chances of normalization and alliances. They will want to move closer to Iran and align with Turkey. In the Gulf, we come out weaker — except with the UAE.”
Israel is also concerned about broader regional implications. North African countries appear to be distancing themselves from Jerusalem and moving toward a Turkish–Muslim Brotherhood axis, with notable effects in Libya, Sudan and Somalia.
Anwar Gargash, adviser to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, wrote on X: “It is premature to draw lessons from the treacherous Iranian aggression, yet we proceed to entrench the concept of the state that has enshrined the success of the UAE and its model, and we work to enhance our ability to safeguard this homeland and defend it. With the confidence of one who has triumphed over a perfidious assault, we will scrutinize the map of our regional and international relations with precision, and determine who can be relied upon, including the structuring of an economy and financial system that bolsters the resilience of our model. The rational review of our national priorities is our path to the future.”
Lior Ben Ari contributed to this report