On Thursday, temperatures will drop slightly, mainly in the mountains and inland areas. It will still be hotter than usual in the mountains and inland, while conditions will remain humid along the coastal plain. Heavy to extreme heat stress will continue across most parts of the country. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy during the day and overnight, with a chance of drizzle to light local rain along the coast toward morning.
According to Israel Meteorological Service, heavy rain is expected to reach Israel this weekend, despite the height of summer, with flooding also possible in some areas. Summer rain does occur in Israel from time to time, but this year it is apparently linked to the “Super El Niño” phenomenon, a climate event that began in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to peak in December. In the meantime, it is disrupting weather patterns across nearly every continent.
How unusual is rain during the Israeli summer, particularly in the first half of August? The answer depends on the location. Drizzle is not particularly rare in August and occurs along the coastal plain roughly once every two years. More substantial rainfall, in amounts of 5 to 10 millimeters, is rarer, particularly inland, occurring on average only once every five to 10 years. The last time this happened was in August 2022 in the Hula Valley and Golan Heights. At the Yonatan weather station in central Golan, 10.4 millimeters of rain were recorded.
Significant rainfall in double-digit amounts farther south, such as in Jerusalem and the Dead Sea area, is already considered an extremely rare or unprecedented event.
The phenomenon — and the weekend forecast
Relatively cool air and moisture in the middle layers of the atmosphere will reach Israel from the direction of Greece, bringing rain to the eastern part of the country, mainly Saturday afternoon, from the Golan Heights through the Jordan Valley, Dead Sea and Judean Desert to the northern Arava. High-resolution Israel Meteorological Service models also forecast heavy rainfall, with localized flooding possible in streams in the Jordan Valley, Judean Desert and southern Dead Sea area.
Susita Beach
(Photo: Eyal Mulgan, Kinneret Cities Association)
This is highly unusual weather for the season and could well be an early indication of the effects of the “Super El Niño” phenomenon, which is already affecting large parts of the Northern Hemisphere and “pushing” weather systems from one place to another, unlike typical conditions in other years. In some parts of the world, the phenomenon is manifesting in extreme heat waves, such as those in Western Europe. In other cases, it is causing colder air to move south toward Turkey, Greece and even the region, as is expected this weekend.
On Friday, temperatures will drop to seasonal averages. Drizzle to light local rain is possible in northern Israel and along the coastal plain in the morning. From the afternoon, mainly in the north and central mountains, mostly light local rain is possible. Heat stress is also expected to ease on Friday after the heavy heat experienced in recent days.
On Saturday, skies will be partly cloudy to clear, with no significant change in temperatures. From the afternoon, local rain and isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly in northern and eastern Israel. Sunday will also be partly cloudy to clear, with no significant change in temperatures. Local rain is possible from the afternoon, mainly in northern and eastern Israel. According to the Israel Meteorological Service, isolated thunderstorms are also possible, particularly in the east. The service will issue detailed warnings in the coming days based on updated forecasts and projections.
Forecast temperatures for Thursday, day and night: Jerusalem 73-90°F (23-32°C), Tel Aviv 75-90°F (24-32°C), Haifa 73-88°F (23-31°C), Safed 73-90°F (23-32°C), Katzrin 72-97°F (22-36°C), Tiberias 75-99°F (24-37°C), Nazareth 73-95°F (23-35°C), Afula 70-97°F (21-36°C), Beit She’an 79-104°F (26-40°C), Lod 75-91°F (24-33°C), Ashdod 77-90°F (25-32°C), Ein Gedi 86-104°F (30-40°C), Beersheba 75-97°F (24-36°C), Mitzpe Ramon 79-95°F (26-35°C), Eilat 88-108°F (31-42°C).