Anyone expecting a cold, rainy January was sorely disappointed, as people in many regions around the world found themselves in short sleeves while irrigation systems kept fields hydrated. According to data from Copernicus, the European Union’s climate monitoring service, January 2025 was 1.75°C (3.15°F) warmer than the pre-industrial average, continuing a worrying trend of record-breaking temperatures seen in 2023 and 2024. Scientists say human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are fueling the planet’s rapid warming.
Despite expectations that La Niña — a natural phenomenon that typically cools the eastern Pacific for one to three years — would counteract global heat, its impact has been disappointingly weak. Instead, the latest climate data delivers a stark warning: Every fraction of a degree in warming increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, including deadly heat waves, torrential rains and severe droughts.
According to Copernicus climate scientist Julien Nicolas, January 2025 globally was 0.09°C (0.16°F) hotter than the previous record set just a year earlier — a significant jump in global temperature terms. Like many of his colleagues, Nicolas was surprised by La Niña’s lack of influence on global temperatures.
Dangerous climate threshold in sight
While 2023 and 2024 saw global temperatures exceeding the critical 1.5-degree Celsius threshold set in the Paris Agreement — signed by 196 nations nearly a decade ago — some experts believe 2025 may rank as only the third hottest year on record. Even so, climate scientists stress that crossing this warming limit, even temporarily, signals a dangerous trajectory.
Copernicus experts say they are closely monitoring ocean temperatures this year. In 2023 and 2024, sea surface temperatures were exceptionally high, a troubling development given that oceans act as a climate regulator and carbon sink. Cooler ocean waters can absorb more heat from the atmosphere, helping to lower air temperatures. Currently, oceans absorb 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, but their capacity is limited.
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Scientists warn that every fraction of warming increases the risk of hitting critical tipping points, potentially triggering irreversible damage to Earth’s climate systems. These systems help sustain life and keep the planet habitable.
Experts: Fossil fuels remain the primary culprit
University College London climate scientist Professor Bill McGuire called the January temperature spike “both astonishing and terrifying.” Meanwhile, Dr. Joel Hirschi of the UK’s National Oceanography Center cautioned against drawing conclusions from a single month, noting that the warmth may have been influenced by El Niño, a climate pattern that releases ocean heat into the atmosphere, temporarily boosting global temperatures. However, experts agree on one thing: the primary driver of long-term global warming remains the burning of fossil fuels.
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Graph depicting global monthly temperature anomalies by year compared to the pre-industrial period
(Photo: AFP)
The European Union’s climate monitoring efforts rely on billions of data points collected from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations. While these records date back to 1940, other sources — including ice cores, tree rings, and coral fossils — allow scientists to reconstruct Earth’s past climate far beyond modern data collection. Based on these findings, experts say today’s warming is likely the highest Earth has experienced in at least 125,000 years.
While recent heat records don’t necessarily mean the 1.5-degree Celsius limit has been permanently breached, scientists warn that humanity is approaching the point of no return much faster than anticipated. Without urgent action to curb emissions, Earth is on track for a catastrophic 2°C (3.6°F) rise in temperatures within this century — a level that could have devastating and irreversible consequences for both the planet and its inhabitants.