Over the past decade, the geopolitical landscape between the United States and the European Union has undergone significant changes. The once-stable transatlantic alliance is experiencing fractures, driven by shifting U.S. policies and Europe’s push for greater autonomy. This evolving relationship is evident in responses to international crises, such as the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, as well as Europe’s renewed focus on military capabilities.
A transatlantic divide: The US steps back, Europe moves forward
Historically, Washington has led, with Brussels following its direction. However, recent years have disrupted this dynamic, particularly during the Trump administration. Mattia Diletti, a researcher in the Department of Communication and Social Research at La Sapienza University in Rome, argues that the shift is not due to Europe pulling away but rather to the US stepping back.
“It is not Europe that dissociates itself from the United States, but it is the United States that dissociates itself from Europe, from NATO,” according to Diletti. “This administration has decided to intervene in a transformative way on the liberal order that the United States has shaped after World War II.”
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The consequences of reduced US involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war extend beyond military aid
(צילום: Saul Loeb / AFP)
This change reflects a broader departure from the post-World War II multilateral system, moving toward a more transactional approach based on spheres of influence.
As Diletti explains: “What is changing is the system of international relations with the abandonment of a multilateral system based on international institutions led by the United States, toward another model based on spheres of influence.”
The Ukraine war: Europe fills the US void
The shift in U.S. engagement is most evident in Ukraine. With Washington showing hesitancy in sustaining its support, Europe has been compelled to take a more active role in Kyiv’s defense.
Steven Terner, an American geopolitical analyst, describes this transition.
“Europe is going to pick up the slack that the United States is dropping,” he said “So Europe will continue to support Ukraine, and it’ll support Ukraine probably even more than the US was, because it’s afraid of being left without the United States entirely.”
Yet, the consequences of reduced US involvement extend beyond military aid.
Terner warns that Washington’s reluctance to fully back Ukraine is weakening its global standing: “The risk is the United States is simply losing geopolitical influence by not supporting Ukraine. It’s losing credibility with Europe, and it’s losing credibility with all of its allies internationally. And Europe is taking over the influence that the United States is backing out of.”
Rearming Europe: A new military power emerges
In response to these geopolitical shifts, European nations have significantly increased their defense spending. The European Union has announced an ambitious $800 billion plan for security and military development. Diletti sees this as a crucial step, though one that remains largely theoretical.
“We are evoking a future of an autonomous Europe politically and militarily, but from a practical and material point of view, we are far from it,” he said.
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Despite growing defense budgets, he remains skeptical about Europe's ability to act decisively: “The transformation of political Europe, for me, is like a soap bubble. Europe must change its approach to decision-making. Otherwise, all this movement risks becoming a soap bubble.”
The Middle East: Europe and the US on diverging paths
Beyond Ukraine, differing approaches to Middle Eastern conflicts further illustrate the widening gap between the U.S. and the EU. The Trump administration’s stance on Israel and Palestine, particularly regarding the Gaza crisis, clashed with European leaders, who supported an Egyptian-led peace initiative.
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Kaja Kallas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and vice-president of the European Commission.
(Photo: Jennifer Jacomeret, European Union)
Terner points to Europe’s limited ability to enforce its policies: “Even though Europe supports the Arab and Egyptian plan, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be implemented, because they can’t implement it without Israel.”
Similarly, Diletti questions whether Europe has ever wielded real influence in the region: “Clearly, it is an attempt to gain autonomy and to reason in terms of reasonable terms. But the question remains: Have Europeans ever really had much influence in this region?”
A new world order?
The growing divide between the U.S. and Europe is forcing both to reconsider their roles in global affairs. While Europe pushes for strategic independence, the U.S. appears increasingly focused on a transactional foreign policy, treating alliances as negotiable rather than essential.
“Everywhere that the United States pulls out of will be filled by somebody else. There’s a power vacuum, and it’s going to be filled,” Terner observes:
For now, Europe seems ready to step into that gap. Whether it can truly establish itself as a dominant geopolitical force or remain hindered by internal divisions remains uncertain.
This article was written by Giorgia Valente and reprinted with permission from The Media Line