President Barack Obama’s latest three victories attest to his reinforced stature within the domestic political scene in the US and hints to the president’s strategy ahead of the 2012 elections. This strategy includes continued tax breaks for the wealthy, the annulment of the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy, and the resumption of the joint START program with Russia for monitoring the nuclear arsenals held by the two states, while continuing the process of minimizing the number of warheads they possess.
Obama, the sly politician, has returned following a two-year exile, and he is willing to do whatever is necessary in order to succeed. The interesting question for Israel and for others in the region is whether now that he showed his ability to maneuver the political establishment as he wanted, Obama will choose to utilize this skill internationally as well and revive the dying Middle East peace process.
Barack Obama at the end of 2010 is different than the Barack Obama at the end of 2008. The current Obama grasps the immense importance of branding himself as a consensual candidate ahead of the 2012 presidential battle. This is the only way he would be able to draw independent voters, who enabled him to win the presidency yet abandoned him in the 2010 elections.
Following the defeat suffered by the Democrats in the midterm elections, the president is now turning his attention to the center of the political spectrum and is reaching out to the Republicans, as he promised to do during his campaign (yet failed to do during his first two years in office.)
With his recent moves, Obama proved that he possesses impressive political skill. Even though most American commentators pronounced the death of the nuclear monitoring agreement in the wake of the November election defeat, Obama managed to pass the new START legislation with overwhelming Republican support.
His success is even more impressive considering the resounding failures of two previous Democratic presidents, Jimmy Carter in 1979 and Bill Clinton in 1999, to pass similar programs pertaining to the monitoring of US arms.
Pragmatic strategy
As to the tax breaks, Obama signaled to Republicans that he can work together on a controversial issue in his own party, and at the same time he also managed to pass another incentive program that many Republicans strongly objected to. The annulment of “don’t ask, don’t tell” passed despite the objection of many senior military officials who are usually associated the Republican Party.
The pragmatic strategy of compromising on one issue in order to elicit the required support on another issue that is dear to Obama, such as the monitoring of nuclear stockpiles, may also be reflected in the Middle East. Should Obama decide that the peace process is important enough in order to “utilize” the political clout he accumulated and his ability to maneuver the political establishment as he wishes, he is expected to boost the pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu toreturn to the negotiation table via Republican Congress members.
Netanyahu, who is not interested in a genuine peace process, will do everything in his power to ensure that the Republicans demand other political dividends from Obama so that he reassumes his successor’s policy of turning a blind eye to the issue. In recent days we are seeing the determination of Netanyahu, who wishes to prevent any practical progress in the peace process. We can only hope that soon we shall discover that Obama is determined to do the opposite.
Ben Thein is a former Research Fellow on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He had also worked with Madeleine Albright and Dennis Ross. He is the founder of Israel's Young Professionals Forum on Global Issues