This is a just war. A war of necessity. It must be said again and again that given the fact that the Iranian regime is likely the most murderous in the world, given its racist ideology, and given its declared goal of destroying another state, this is a war that must be fought.
A little more than a week has passed, and the sense is that the combined effort of Israel and the United States is working. Iran is taking heavy blows. It is even possible that the most important objective will be achieved — the collapse or overthrow of the regime.
But we have seen this movie before, and not long ago. Israel launched the most justified of wars and dealt a severe blow to a murderous organization with a racist ideology — but failed in the broader campaign.
Diplomatically, Israel’s situation has never been worse. It is not only that Hamas, even if weakened, remains in power. It is also the hostility toward Israel that has become the dominant norm in the free world. It is no longer confined to elites in the media and academia. Now it includes a majority of the American public, which identifies more with the Palestinians than with Israel. In the past, many reassured themselves that what happened in academia would stay in academia, and that once students became adults and entered real life, they would join the normal majority that knows how to distinguish between right and wrong. That did not happen.
Public opinion in the United States was a strategic pillar of strength. We have lost it. This did not begin on October 7. A graph of the shift, recently published by Gallup, points to a free fall in support, particularly among two groups — Democrats and young people. Among the latter, the turnaround occurred precisely in 2023. Hamas arrived to carry out a massacre — and yet it was Israel that began to lose support. Fifty-three percent of young people identify with the Palestinians and 23% with Israel. An astonishing 30-point gap among those aged 18 to 34.
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(Photos: Maxwell Orlosky / US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE / AFP, Kevin Lamarque/Reuters, Evan Vucci/AP)
Now there is the war against Iran. “We are striking them hard,” Netanyahu said on Friday. Excellent. The question is how to prevent another collapse — how to turn a military achievement into a strategic one. We failed completely against Hamas. Given that Israel’s standing in public opinion is already difficult, the strategic collapse could be far more painful this time. And no, we cannot afford such a collapse. Without noticing, it could become an existential threat.
What might that collapse look like? The leading candidate in the next U.S. presidential race for the Democratic Party is California Governor Gavin Newsom. “The current leadership in Israel,” Newsom said last week, “is leading us down a path where I don’t think we have any choice but to reconsider aid to Israel.” Against the backdrop of government policies interpreted as annexation, Newsom added that “Israel is an apartheid state.”
When Betzalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Yossi Dagan celebrate and dance over every new West Bank outpost, Hamas supporters and the BDS movement celebrate and dance as well — because the circle of those opposed to any assistance to Israel continues to grow.
The prediction that Newsom could become the next U.S. president is not far-fetched. In the Republican Party, it could be J.D. Vance, a close ally of Tucker Carlson. And that is frightening. Given the pace of change in American public opinion, by the next U.S. presidential election there could be 80% opposition to aid to Israel. No special relationship. No defense alliance. No veto at the United Nations. No protection for Israel in international institutions. Barack Hussein Obama would be considered an extreme Zionist compared with the emerging leadership of the Democratic Party — and perhaps the Republican Party as well.
Ben-Dror YeminiPhoto: Avigail UziThe declining identification with Israel is also a result of the perception that Israel is trampling the Palestinians. True, it is the Palestinian leadership that has repeatedly rejected every proposal for a two-state solution. But it is difficult to make the argument about Palestinian rejectionism when Smotrich and the hooligans rampage in the territories and insist on reinforcing the narrative that the Palestinians are victims of Israeli oppression.
Things can change. But for that to happen, Israel must show diplomatic generosity. After all, the Palestinians have always said no. They would not even meet the preliminary conditions laid out in the French-Saudi initiative, which include disarming Hamas and revising school textbooks, among other steps. Because without a change in public opinion, even an important military victory will eventually turn into a strategic collapse.
We have seen this movie before. There is no need for another one that turns such a collapse into an existential threat.