Give Trump’s Gaza vision a chance, even if the odds are long

Opinion: In ordinary times, the odds would seem slim, but these are not ordinary days; if Iran’s regime falls, the regional equation could shift and Hamas may face a different reality, making even ambitious plans worth testing

Donald Trump looked on with admiration as his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, presented his vision for the Gaza Strip last Thursday in Davos. The promenade lined with striking towers was visually appealing. It is doubtful that what suits Singapore or Dubai fits Gaza. But intention matters.
By 2035, Kushner said, annual household income in the Strip would rise to at least $13,000. That would be remarkable, especially given that per capita GDP in Gaza stands at about $161 a year, likely among the lowest in the world. It represents a free fall compared with conditions before the October 7 massacre.
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דונלד טראמפ
דונלד טראמפ
US President Donald Trump
(Photo: Jonathan Ernst/ Reuters)
The promenade did not wait for Trump’s vision. It already existed, with restaurants, hotels, bustling shopping centers and new, spacious neighborhoods. Gaza flourished at others’ expense. According to Kushner, 85% of its GDP came from external aid. That was enough to sustain relative prosperity and to build the largest and most sophisticated tunnel system in the world.
So it is hard to argue that Gaza’s residents lack creativity or practicality. The problem is that prosperity was never the priority of Ismail Haniyeh or Yahya Sinwar. Ideology was and remains, in the words of Hassan al-Banna, founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, an industry of death. Wherever jihad takes root, destruction follows sooner or later. Hamas has once again provided proof.
There is no need to dismiss the vision. Trump has already delivered what many considered miracles. Without him, there would have been no cease-fire. The war of attrition would have dragged on. Each week we would have counted our dead. Living hostages would have continued to suffer in subhuman conditions, and it is doubtful how many would have survived.
Yes, thanks to coercion, we are in a far better position today. Fighting continues in some areas, but at much lower intensity. At the same time, it is impossible to ignore the fact that Trump ushered Qatar and Turkey in through the front door and elevated them to central players in the Middle East. There is also concern that Hamas will remain a central actor in Gaza.

At least there is a plan

The point is that today there is at least a plan for the day after. Israel did not present it, Kushner did, but something exists. Against the bleak backdrop of a devastated Gaza Strip, a vision is not such a bad idea. One is allowed to dream.
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הדמיה של "עזה החדשה"
הדמיה של "עזה החדשה"
Jared Kushner
(Photo: Evan Vucci/ AP)
The precondition, as Kushner made clear, is the disarmament of Hamas within 100 days. Will it happen or not? Kushner urged everyone, including Israel, to calm down regarding the Turkish partnership. He did not clarify whether that meant Turkish troops on the ground or merely participation in the new peace council Trump announced.
What is clear is that Israel should bite its lip and avoid positioning itself as the spoiler of this vision, whose chances of realization are not high. Over the past two years, because of an unwise policy, Israel has repeatedly lost the blame game, even against the Islamist-Nazi entity that emerged there.
Israel has fought its most justified war since the war against the Nazis, and yet it is in diplomatic free fall. Protests and boycotts continue, against Israel, not against Hamas. There is no need for further losses.
בן-דרור ימיניBen-Dror YeminiPhoto: Avigail Uzi
Why not only remain silent, but actively support the vision and do everything possible to advance it? Because if it is realized, including the demilitarization of Gaza, it would be extraordinary. In ordinary times, we would say the odds are negligible. But these are different days.
If the Iranian regime falls, everything becomes possible. Hamas, too, would find itself in a different position. And in any case, if Hamas refuses, responsibility will be clear. We have seen this movie before.
The international community, through the Quartet and the European Union, repeatedly offered visions of prosperity in exchange for an end to terror. Hamas always said no. The Trump administration itself presented an offer that was hard to refuse in 2020. Ismail Haniyeh, then Hamas leader, admitted he rejected $15 billion in aid in exchange for demilitarizing Gaza. The outcome is known. Destruction followed.
So Israel does not need to sabotage a vision of prosperity. Hamas knows how to do that on its own.
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