So it appears. We are heading toward a memorandum of understanding that will allow the ceasefire to continue for another 60 days, during which the details will be worked out. Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that all the conditions Trump recently announced will appear in the memorandum.
That would mean all enriched uranium would be transferred to another country, Iran would commit not to pursue nuclear weapons and would agree to international oversight. Sounds wonderful? Not at all. It is a bad agreement for the world, bad for the United States and bad for Israel.
Because the main problem with Iran is the very existence of the ayatollahs’ regime. Senior officials in the United States and Israel, including IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir last week, have told us remarkable things about the severe blow dealt to Iran. They are not lying. But there is a problem. The heavy damage does not prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz. It does not prevent the reconstruction of missile sites and launchers, and there are already countless reports of capabilities being restored. Nor has it restrained the repression of the Iranian people. On the contrary, the situation is worsening. And despite the damage, Iran’s ability to strike neighboring countries remains intact.
And precisely if the officials are right, even the best agreement with Iran would be a disaster. Because the severe blow to Iran has, in practice, brought about a change of rule. Instead of a murderous regime, we got a monstrous one. And instead of moving to the next stage, the agreement would lead to legitimization and the strengthening of that monstrous regime. Under the agreement, billions will once again flow into Iran. And what will it do with that wealth? The answer is known. Even if Iran observes every letter of the agreement, it will invest the money in the very areas not covered by it. And as things appear, there will be no restriction on investment in developing a new generation of far deadlier ballistic missiles. Nor will there be restrictions on investment in its proxies — the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas and the militias in Iraq — which matter to the Iranian regime far more than the Iranian people.
There is a problem. The heavy damage does not prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz. It does not prevent the reconstruction of missile sites and launchers, and there are already countless reports of capabilities being restored. Nor has it restrained the repression of the Iranian people
The impact on the region will be multi-front and deadly. Start with Lebanon, which is trying to free itself from the suffocating grip of Hezbollah and Iran, a grip that brings only destruction and ruin. An agreement with Iran will put an end to any chance of rebuilding the country and making progress toward a peace agreement with Israel. From the moment the gong sounds announcing the deal, Hezbollah will feel much stronger. The chokehold will tighten. And that will happen even before Iran transfers a single dollar or smuggles in a single weapon.
The same is true in the Gaza Strip. The successors to the successors to the successors of Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif will breathe a sigh of relief. Hamas needs a tailwind from the head of the snake of the axis of evil. And an agreement with Iran, which will strengthen the head of the snake, will strengthen the entire axis of evil. The chances of moving to phase two in Gaza, which would include Hamas disarming, are already not high. An agreement with Iran will erase them.
The third arena is the Gulf states. Even with the limited power Iran still has, it can cause damage on an astronomical scale, including to energy and desalination facilities. An agreement with the United States means Iran has withstood the strongest country in the world. The American military will leave. The regional power will be Iran. That is the complete opposite of the war’s objectives.
Ben-Dror Yemini Photo: Avigail UziAnd on the global stage, after Iran was not defeated, after leaks suggesting U.S. missile interceptors are running low and after the growing impression that the United States fears a resumption of the war, it turns out that the power that was supposed to be the strongest in the world is not so strong after all. A weak and wounded country threatens it, and it folds. The man who promised to help the Iranian people has abandoned them to a monstrous regime. Trump will become a lame duck. This will affect many other flashpoints, including those involving China and Russia.
There is no need to renew the war. But an agreement that strengthens the Iranian regime is ten times worse. American interests, and those of the region’s countries, can be preserved by continuing the siege. Not war. Strangulation. True, oil prices will remain high. They may even rise. But the price the free world is paying now is far lower than the price it will pay for an agreement, any agreement, that only strengthens Iran. Take note, loyal reader Donald Trump.