We don’t need interpretations from conference rooms in Switzerland or Washington to understand what is once again at stake. For the fourth time, Israel is being required to halt its campaign mid-operation. Once again, the goal of defeating Hezbollah and cutting off the arms of the Iranian “octopus” in the Middle East is being obstructed, while efforts to secure the conditions necessary for stability in the north are being undermined.
As in previous times, it appears that the US administration is aligning itself with Iranian dictates, and amid countless aggressive tweets and statements issued by President Donald Trump in recent weeks, little coherence remains.
US President Donald Trump
(Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP)
It appears that President Trump, who has declared himself Israel’s closest ally, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, his envoy for peace, are now turning their backs on us, and many in Israel are hoping they will reconsider. The two, alongside members of the president’s staff, are leading US efforts vis-à-vis Tehran in an attempt to halt the fighting, apparently driven by domestic and economic considerations, fatigue from the ongoing campaign, and concerns over diplomatic and political failure.
These considerations cannot justify merging the separate fronts in Iran and Lebanon into a single front, and they risk creating a slippery slope in which, in the next “ceasefire” as well, Iran will demand that Israel also withdraw from the Gaza and West Bank fronts.
Those who are willing to look reality in the eye understand clearly: Iran and Hezbollah will exploit every moment of pause to rebuild their firepower systems. They will arrive more prepared and more lethal for the next strike. Already in August 2025, the United States issued a clear directive to Israel to reduce military operations and withdraw forces from southern Lebanon. In practice, this means returning to defending residents from within the border-adjacent communities, the last line of defense.
Time and again, it is the same mindset, rooted in the illusion that Hezbollah will respond to diplomacy and abandon its plan to destroy the communities of the Galilee. In previous “ceasefires,” including those in which the fire never truly stopped for a moment, assurances that Hezbollah would disarm ultimately collapsed on the ground. The same holds for the billions expected to flow to Iran as part of any agreement, which would inevitably be directed toward further strengthening and entrenching Hezbollah’s capabilities.
IDF soldiers were sent to Hezbollah Radwan Force staging villages beyond the Litani River to dismantle infrastructure that threatened Manara, Kiryat Shmona and Shlomi. Their blood was shed there to create a different security reality, not to serve as a bargaining chip in a political arena.
The new-old equation that Washington is trying to impose on us is dangerous: Hezbollah’s intent to destroy and its military buildup along the border will be tolerated, while only actual acts of terror will trigger a proportional response based on the damage inflicted on our forces and civilians. In other words, under this logic, only if children in the Galilee are killed will we be “permitted” to respond with full force.
Returning to concepts of equations and proportional responses is a fundamental erosion of Israeli deterrence, and ultimately leads to the greatest harm, encouraging all our enemies to act more boldly and test our patience and the level of force the world allows us to use. Soldiers who will now be required to withdraw know very well that they will later be called again to reoccupy the exact same terrain when agreements collapse.
In closed discussions held this week, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned of the immediate danger that, if withdrawing from the yellow line, the infiltration threat will return.”
At this stage, Israeli ministers are projecting unity, saying the objective is to remain within the yellow line. Netanyahu is also making this clear and committing to it, and perhaps that is precisely what raises concern. Promises here expire quickly. No budget allocations for recovery and growth will matter in an environment where safe living cannot be guaranteed. Children will not be able to play in the playgrounds of Shtula and Metula if their parents do not know that the army is positioned directly ahead, face-to-face with the enemy.
Until October 7, 2023, the military system completely failed in protecting our lives against an enemy that tried to lull us into complacency. The lives of hundreds of thousands in the north were left exposed to Hezbollah’s plans, the scope and intensity of which we have only recently rediscovered. After that failure, no one in the military or political leadership has the privilege of knowing about a threat and sitting idle.
Those who believe, either in Washington or Jerusalem, that the Galilee can be defended from balcony-like positions along the fence while militants sit opposite them are deluding themselves into the next incursion. When it comes, Netanyahu will no longer be able to claim that no one pulled his sleeve and warned him.