I have heard Trump supporters, shocked by reports of the agreement the U.S. president is advancing with Iran, consoling themselves by saying, “If Kamala Harris had won, things would have been even worse.” I did not ask what could be worse than leaving Israel to face a strengthened and vengeful Iran on its own, and their claim, like my response, is ultimately speculation.
Still, based on the character and background of the two individuals in question, I will try to assess what might have been different regarding Iran had the Democratic candidate defeated Donald Trump in 2024 and become president of the United States.
Anyone who follows Trump’s conduct should not be surprised by anything. It is true that in the past he took steps widely perceived as exceptionally supportive of Israeli policies - after recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, the prime minister even placed him in the same historical company as Cyrus the Great, the Persian king who enabled the return to Zion. But Trump’s inconsistency is well known, and likewise that his actions are driven primarily by what he believes serves him at a given moment.
Moreover, responsible leaders are expected to consult people with expertise and experience. Trump, by contrast, entrusted his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his associate, real-estate magnate Steve Witkoff, with handling some of the world’s most complex conflicts: Ukraine, Iran, and the Middle East. At the same time, he dismisses or sidelines those whose views he dislikes.
One need not be a strategist to understand that a threatened Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz; one merely needs to look at a map. Yet despite warnings that military action could disrupt maritime traffic, the United States proceeded with its attack. Now the administration boasts of reopening a sea lane that had never actually been closed before, part of a deal that will inject enormous sums of money into Iran.
Like Trump, Harris would probably have relied on people she trusted. But it is reasonable to assume she would not have relied on them alone - during her tenure as vice president under President Joe Biden, the administration made use of professional institutions and followed structured decision-making processes. It is therefore difficult to believe that she would have ignored warnings regarding the closure of Hormuz, and doubtful that she would have entered a conflict with Iran without a clear exit strategy, as Trump did.
Tova HerzlFurthermore, unlike the president, a businessman who rose to fame as a reality television star, Harris emerged from within the political establishment and does not disdain its institutions and rules. It is therefore doubtful that she would have blindsided Israel without coordination, consultation or even advance notice, as Trump did.
There is another issue whose implications for Israel are critical, perhaps even existential. For decades, Israel and its supporters in the United States painstakingly cultivated a deep and effective relationships in both major parties. Thanks to those ties, Israel was able to navigate Washington’s centers of power. If an administration posed difficulties, Congress could provide support. If Republicans created obstacles, Democrats could be approached to help.
In recent years, however, Netanyahu’s government has focused heavily on Republicans while openly slighting Democrats, the party supported by most American Jews. The enormous strategic advantage of broad bipartisan support in Congress was increasingly neglected, especially after Trump’s election. It was as if the president were securely in the prime minister’s pocket, as if there were a warranty that Trump’s unpredictability would stop at the gates to Jerusalem.
Yet despite all this, and despite Israel steadily distancing itself from liberal values, Israel and its supporters still retain considerable influence among Democrats. A wise government would have cultivated and utilized that asset.
A Harris presidency might well have posed challenges for Israel. In that case, Israel could have responded by drawing on the bipartisan foundation it spent decades building, and one can only hope it will work vigorously to restore. That would be far preferable to the irresponsible approach of recent years, which has rested on a single party and, above all, on the whims of one unpredictable individual.
- Tova Herzl is a former Israeli ambassador to South Africa and the Baltic countries, and served as liaison between the U.S. Congress and the Israeli Embassy in Washington