A dramatic shift unfolded in southern Yemen over the past week. The Southern Transitional Council (STC), with full backing from the United Arab Emirates, launched a wide-scale military operation and seized control of much of the south — including the port city of Aden, its airport, key government institutions, and the resource-rich Hadramawt province.
Yemen’s internationally recognized government fled to Riyadh, while the flag of former South Yemen was raised over government buildings in Aden. The country now appears de facto split into two rival entities: a pro-Emirati South and a Houthi-controlled North — a fragmentation with broad implications for the regional balance of power, including for Israel.
The STC's takeover has effectively created a separate political and security entity in the south — one with leadership, institutions, and an organized military, operating under Emirati protection. What once seemed like a distant possibility — the dissolution of unified Yemen — is now becoming a reality on the ground.
The Houthis, who control the north and are backed by Iran, face both setbacks and opportunities. On one hand, the coalition that had fought them since 2015 — Yemen’s official government, Saudi Arabia, tribal militias, and other factions — now appears fractured, ineffective and unable to present a united front. This chaos plays to the Houthis’ advantage, allowing them to solidify their hold on territory, deepen ties with Iran and Hezbollah, and expand their missile and drone capabilities.
On the other hand, the Houthis are now confronted by a well-trained, disciplined, and increasingly powerful southern force — one with a stable political and economic sponsor in Abu Dhabi. The STC's recent offensive reached all the way to the border with Oman, cutting off key smuggling routes used by the Houthis to import weapons. Unlike the fragmented northern forces, the STC has already shown it can not only hold territory but also conduct successful offensives. If it moves north toward the Houthi capital of Sanaa, as its leaders have threatened, it could pose the most serious military challenge the Houthis have faced in years.
For Saudi Arabia, the developments were a strategic surprise. While Riyadh has spent years trying to stabilize the official Yemeni government and preserve Yemen’s territorial unity, the UAE quietly built a parallel military and political structure in the south. The divide between the two Gulf allies is now in sharp focus. Without true strategic alignment between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, Yemen is unlikely to become a shared success story — and will remain a battleground for influence.
The emerging result is a split Yemen: a northern Houthi state with a Shiite-Zaydi identity, and a southern pro-Emirati entity with growing stability. The regional implications could be far-reaching, from shifts in maritime power in the Gulf of Aden to the risk of renewed civil war.
Why this matters to Israel
For Israel, a more clearly defined southern entity in Yemen could shift regional dynamics. Yemen has long been considered a secondary, though troubling, front due to the Houthis’ long-range missile and drone capabilities, which have the potential to strike Israeli territory.
The STC’s rise presents two opposing scenarios. On one hand, the weakening of Saudi-aligned factions could further reduce coordinated pressure on the Houthis, allowing them continued territorial control and time to strengthen militarily and deepen their Iranian alliance.
On the other hand, a strong, disciplined southern force backed by the UAE could open a new strategic opportunity for Israel. The UAE — a key regional partner with strong ties to Jerusalem — may view a stable southern Yemen as a bulwark against Iran’s growing influence in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden. If leveraged carefully, this could evolve into security and diplomatic coordination with Israel. Some southern Yemeni leaders have even voiced support for Israel in the past.
Moreover, the STC’s control of key ports such as Aden and Mukalla, along with the UAE’s presence on the island of Socotra, enhances oversight of global shipping routes critical to Israel — including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and approaches to the Suez Canal. Weakening Houthi control in these waters serves Israel’s strategic interest.
Still, it is important to recognize that southern Yemen is not "pro-Israel" — it is pro-Emirati. Any diplomatic window will depend on Israel’s ability to maintain close trust with Abu Dhabi, avoid overt identification with southern separatists, and navigate the Saudi-Emirati rivalry with care.
Looking ahead
The STC’s rapid takeover of Hadramawt, Aden and southern Yemen marks a turning point. Though technically still part of Yemen’s official government, the STC’s move highlights the deep rift between Saudi Arabia’s vision of a united Yemen and the UAE’s effort to establish a separate, stable, pro-Emirati southern state. Riyadh finds itself sidelined, while Abu Dhabi consolidates a power base on the Arabian Peninsula’s southern tip.
Dr. Yoel GuzanskyPhoto: INSSWhile the Houthi threat to Israel remains unchanged for now, the STC’s attempt to build a functioning state opens long-term strategic possibilities. STC leader Aidarous al-Zoubaidi has publicly suggested that an independent southern Yemen could join the Abraham Accords. If this materializes, Israel could gain a new partner in the Red Sea — a key arena in the struggle against Iranian influence and for safeguarding maritime trade routes.
Dr. Yoel Guzansky is a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and an expert on Gulf affairs.