When ESPN draft analyst Mike Schmitz evaluated Deni Avdija ahead of the 2020 NBA draft, he believed the Israeli forward would be selected in the top five. Most draft experts shared that view, projecting Avdija to go fourth or fifth overall.
So when the Washington Wizards selected Avdija ninth, Schmitz was stunned. “That’s the steal of the draft,” he said at the time. “Deni has star potential in this league.”
Two years later, Schmitz left broadcasting and joined the Portland Trail Blazers as assistant general manager. Two more years after that, Portland acquired Avdija from Washington in a trade that is increasingly viewed as one of the most lopsided deals in recent NBA seasons, sending Malcolm Brogdon and a first-round draft pick to the Wizards.
Less than two years later, Brogdon has retired, while Avdija is emerging as an All-Star candidate and a leading contender for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award. He has drawn praise from stars and analysts across the league, including LeBron James and Steve Nash.
Just as significant for Portland, Avdija is producing at an elite level on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the NBA.
Avdija, 27, is in the final years of a four-year, $55 million deal he signed with Washington in 2023. The contract is structured as a rare descending deal, decreasing in value each season. He is earning $14.3 million this season, will make $13.1 million next year, and $11.9 million in the 2027–28 season, the final year of the contract.
At that point, Avdija could still be entering his prime and potentially coming off multiple All-Star appearances. League observers say the Trail Blazers may have one of the NBA’s top 15 players earning a salary far below market value.
In total, Portland will pay Avdija about $39.4 million over the remainder of the deal — roughly the equivalent of one season’s salary for several star players elsewhere in the league.
The contract has helped Portland build its roster, allowing the team to acquire Jrue Holiday and extend young players such as Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara on significantly larger deals. At the same time, the bargain salary presents a challenge: Portland’s ability to extend Avdija before he reaches free agency is limited by NBA rules, potentially making it difficult to keep him long term.
Avdija’s rise has surprised even those who believed in his talent. Coaches and analysts point not only to his scoring jump — now around 25 points per game — but also to his efficiency, playmaking and physical style. Nash, speaking on a podcast with James, highlighted Avdija’s improvement across the board, including his shooting efficiency and ability to draw fouls at an elite rate.
Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault also praised Avdija’s ability to force defenders into fouling him. “He’s mastered that art,” Daigneault said. “He’s physical, he goes straight into your body and puts referees in a position where they have to make the call.”
Avdija’s value extends beyond the court. Teammates and coaches have pointed to his leadership and maturity, qualities that have stood out since Portland reshaped its coaching staff and built its system around him. Head coach Tiago Splitter has entrusted Avdija with a central role, saying his presence in the locker room is “rare for a player his age.”
For a small-market team that struggles to attract top free agents, Portland’s best chance to return to playoff contention may hinge on keeping Avdija through his prime. Whether the Trail Blazers can do so remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: a player once labeled a draft steal has become one of the NBA’s most valuable contracts — and one of its fastest-rising stars.