A new investigation has raised serious questions about the marketing tactics behind Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction platform that has become one of the most visible names in online event betting.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Polymarket paid young social media creators to film themselves appearing to make huge profits on the platform, even though the trades were fake and carried out on replica versions of the site. The videos, according to the report, were designed to look like authentic user content and were pushed across social media as Polymarket sought to attract new users.
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Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
(Photo: REUTERS/Marco Bello, PJ McDonnell / Shutterstock)
The result was a campaign that blurred the line between advertising, entertainment and deception. Viewers saw influencers placing what appeared to be real high-stakes bets on political, economic and cultural events, including wagers tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s speeches and Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions. But the trades shown in many of the clips were not real.
According to the Journal, Polymarket and its marketing contractors built near-identical versions of the platform where creators could simulate trades without risking any money. The videos then showed them celebrating large wins, creating the impression that ordinary users were making quick profits on the site.
The campaign relied on dozens of mostly college-age creators, some of whom were paid thousands of dollars a month. The Journal said many of the clips did not clearly disclose that they were sponsored or staged.
The distribution system extended beyond the influencers themselves. According to the report, marketing contractors also operated a network of human commenters whose job was to amplify the videos and make them appear organic. Some were instructed to remove any reference to the Polymarket brand from usernames in order to make the posts look more personal and authentic.
The campaign generated more than 140 million views across major platforms, according to the Hebrew report. It focused heavily on American audiences, even though Polymarket’s main crypto-based platform has faced regulatory limits in the United States. The company previously reached a 2022 settlement with U.S. regulators that required it to stop offering certain services to U.S. users.
The revelations come at a sensitive moment for the prediction-market industry. Polymarket, founded in 2020, allows users to bet on the outcome of real-world events, from elections and court cases to economic data and celebrity news. Its technology is built around blockchain-based smart contracts, a model promoted by supporters as more transparent than traditional betting platforms.
That promise of transparency is what makes the latest allegations especially damaging. The platform’s core product is marketed as a way to let users see what the crowd believes will happen. But the Journal’s findings suggest that some of the platform’s most viral marketing was built on simulated activity, undisclosed promotion and staged success.
The timing also reflects growing pressure in the prediction-market sector. For months, Polymarket and Kalshi, a regulated U.S. competitor, were seen as leading players in a fast-expanding market. More recently, Kalshi has opened a significant lead in trading volume, according to the Hebrew report, increasing pressure on Polymarket as it seeks a stronger foothold in the U.S. market.
Polymarket’s push into social media resembled tactics once associated with online forex and binary-options platforms, where demo accounts and exaggerated profit claims were used to lure small investors. But the crypto prediction-market model has added a new layer of sophistication: fast-moving viral videos, politically charged markets and a young audience used to consuming financial content through TikTok, YouTube and X.
Some videos cited by the Journal also promoted content related to insider information and market manipulation. The report said Polymarket paid large sums to prominent influencers who presented the platform as a place where users could make easy money.
The staged nature of the campaign was reportedly exposed in part by small differences between real Polymarket pages and the simulated versions used in the videos. Some clips pointed users toward spoof versions of the site rather than the real platform.
After the Journal contacted creators and the company, many posts were removed and Polymarket shut down the replica sites, according to follow-up coverage of the investigation.
Regulatory and platform responses were swift. TikTok and YouTube began restricting accounts linked to the marketing network over disclosure violations, according to the Hebrew report.
Polymarket said in response that it is committed to fair and transparent markets and plans to conduct a broad review of its active promotional content.
The company’s chief executive, Shayne Coplan, has become one of the most prominent figures in the prediction-market boom, which gained mainstream attention during recent political cycles and major global events. But the latest report adds to broader concerns over whether prediction markets are functioning as transparent information platforms, gambling products or social-media-driven speculation machines.
For users, the central issue is simple: whether viral success stories on platforms like Polymarket reflect real trades or carefully engineered marketing.
For the industry, the stakes are larger. Prediction markets depend on trust. They ask users to believe that prices reflect real expectations, real money and real risk. If the most visible examples of success turn out to be staged, the damage may extend beyond one company’s campaign.
Polymarket built its appeal on the idea that markets can reveal what people truly believe. The Journal’s investigation suggests that, at least in some of its viral marketing, what viewers saw was not belief at all, but performance.