China announced Monday that it had carried out a rare launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine in the Pacific Ocean, a test that has raised deep concern in the West and across the Indo-Pacific region.
It was the first test of its kind by China since a previous launch about two years ago, which itself was the country’s first declared ICBM test in more than 40 years. Countries in the Indo-Pacific see such tests as a worrying sign of Beijing’s accelerating military buildup, at a time of growing concern in the region over possible weakening U.S. defense commitments in the face of future Chinese aggression.
China’s state news agency Xinhua reported that at 12:01 p.m. local time, the Chinese navy launched a “strategic” missile from a nuclear submarine carrying a dummy warhead. The report did not specify the type of missile or where it was launched from. It also did not say where the missile fell, but said it “accurately hit the designated waters.”
Xinhua said the launch was a routine test carried out as part of the Chinese military’s annual training program. “The test was conducted in accordance with international law and international practices, and was not directed against any country or target,” it said.
Although the official report did not identify the missile, the Chinese news site Global Times, considered a mouthpiece of the Communist regime, reported that it was believed to be a JL-3, a new submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile designed to carry nuclear warheads. The missile was unveiled at a major military parade held by Beijing last year, during which China also displayed for the first time a nuclear triad, meaning the ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea and air.
According to a 2023 Pentagon report, the JL-3 is intended for use by a new class of nuclear submarines, and its long range allows it to strike the continental United States even if the submarine remains near China’s shores.
Monday’s test was China’s first long-range ballistic missile launch since September 2024, when it fired a ground-launched intercontinental ballistic missile into Pacific waters near French Polynesia. That was China’s first declared ICBM test since 1980 and sparked alarm among regional countries concerned about China’s arms race.
Chinese President Xi Jinping
(Photo: Athit Perawongmetha / POOL / AFP)
The buildup is viewed both as preparation for a possible future attack on Taiwan, which Beijing has vowed to take control of one day, and as an attempt to deter countries in the region amid China’s disputed claims over key maritime trade routes, including the South China Sea.
The tests come alongside a major expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal in recent years. According to the Pentagon’s latest report, Beijing had about 600 nuclear warheads in 2024, and at its current pace that number is expected to reach 1,000 by 2030. China has also expanded its navy. According to the U.S.-based Nuclear Threat Initiative, it currently has six submarines designed to carry nuclear-tipped missiles, in addition to 59 nuclear-powered attack submarines.
Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on China’s nuclear arsenal at Middlebury College in Vermont, told The New York Times that he believes the test is only the beginning and that more Chinese launches should be expected.
“It suggests a new era of testing where each system gets its moment in the sun,” he said, referring to China’s growing array of nuclear missiles. He added that further tests would give Beijing greater confidence in its nuclear deterrent.
“The Chinese have historically tested their intercontinental missiles less than other countries,” Lewis said. “I think that was a political matter, and now that politics has changed. I think they are adopting an approach of more testing. They are willing to pay the political costs involved in a way they were not prepared to in the past.”
As after the test two years ago, Monday’s launch drew condemnation from regional countries, including Australia, Japan and New Zealand. New Zealand’s government said it had received advance notice from China a few hours before the test, but condemned it and described it as a troubling regional development.
“It appears that despite our long-standing concerns about this kind of activity, China conducted the test hours after notifying us,” New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said. “We, like our neighbors in other Pacific countries, have no interest in China using the South Pacific region as a testing ground for its missile capabilities.”
(Photo: Xinua)
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong also condemned the test, warning that it “undermines” regional stability. She made the remarks during a visit to Fiji, where Australia had signed a security pact only hours before the Chinese launch. The agreement was signed amid a growing struggle for influence between the United States and Australia on one side and China on the other over Pacific island nations, where Beijing hopes to expand its economic and security involvement.
Mark Douglas, an analyst at the vessel-tracking firm Starboard Maritime Intelligence, told Reuters that although the Chinese test was likely planned long in advance, its timing, hours after the Australia-Fiji security pact was signed, was “at the very least interesting.”
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson was asked about the pact Monday and said Beijing hoped “relevant countries” would respect the independence and autonomy of Pacific island nations and avoid harming the interests of “third parties.”
Taiwan also condemned the missile launch. The presidential office in Taipei said the test was an attempt by China “to deter the international community.” Concern in Taiwan has grown in recent years amid frequent Chinese naval exercises near the island’s shores.
NATO also voiced concern. Secretary-General Mark Rutte, speaking at a media briefing in Ankara ahead of the alliance summit set to begin Tuesday in Turkey, said the Chinese test sent a clear message to NATO members.
“This is further proof that we must not be naive, and we are not,” Rutte said, adding that “developments in the Pacific region are also relevant to the trans-Atlantic region.”