The number of missile alerts across Israel has declined since the opening days of the war with Iran but remains extremely high, according to new data published by the Home Front Command, offering a clearer picture of when sirens are most likely to sound.
The data shows a sharp drop in alerts since the first day of Operation Roaring Lion, when more than 13,000 sirens were recorded nationwide. On the second day the number fell to 9,093, before stabilizing between roughly 2,400 and 4,000 alerts per day over the following three days.
The decrease appears largely tied to a reduction in missile launches from Iran. At the same time, however, rocket and drone fire from Hezbollah in Lebanon has increased significantly in recent days.
Analysis of the alerts suggests certain timing patterns. While the Iranian launches appear less structured than rocket fire from Hamas during previous conflicts, the minutes with the highest number of alerts tend to fall between the 35th and 37th minute of each hour and around the 44th minute.
There is also a relatively high number of alerts between six and eight minutes past the hour.
Researchers say this pattern could indicate that missiles are often launched around the start or middle of the hour, with sirens sounding several minutes later as the projectiles approach Israel.
The data, analyzed by researcher Yuval Harpaz and visualized by the Simpler Story project, shows that the highest number of alerts since the start of the war have been recorded during late morning hours, particularly between 10 a.m. and noon.
The lowest number of alerts generally occurs between 2 a.m. and 6 a.m., although several sirens were still reported during those early morning hours overnight. Evening hours between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. have also seen relatively fewer alerts.
Several major cities have recorded dozens of sirens since the start of the fighting. Central Tel Aviv has recorded 52 alerts, while western Rishon LeZion has had 51 and Lod 50.
Jerusalem has recorded 25 alerts, western Haifa 22, northern Beersheba 20 and the southern resort city of Eilat four.
In northern Israel, alerts have increased sharply in recent days following Hezbollah’s entry into the fighting. Nahariya has recorded 20 sirens and Kiryat Shmona 19, including 10 triggered by suspected drone infiltrations.