The first phase of the Swords of Iron War was the recovery stage, which began on October 7, 2023, and lasted about three weeks. It was followed by the maneuvering phase across all fronts, running from October 2023 until recently, marked by cease-fire declarations in Lebanon and Gaza and intensified fighting in the West Bank. On Sunday, the war has entered its third phase—the stage of political agreements.
This phase began with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s departure for a critical visit to the United States. The next day, on Monday, negotiations will commence on the second phase of the hostage deal with Hamas. His meetings and talks with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington are scheduled for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.
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Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump
(Photo: Chaim Goldberg, Shutterstock, Chip Somodevilla pool via REUTERS)
These two developments—the start of negotiations for Phase II of the hostage deal and an end to the war, along with Netanyahu’s discussions with Trump—are deeply interconnected, with far-reaching implications for the Middle East. They could influence Saudi Arabia’s willingness to normalize relations with Israel and shape the Trump administration’s readiness to cooperate with Israel in countering the Iranian threat. Moreover, the outcomes of the talks in Washington and Doha could significantly impact the stability of Netanyahu’s coalition.
The negotiations on the second phase will focus on three main issues: Israel’s demand for the release of all hostages; Hamas’ demand for an end to the war, along with guarantees from the U.S. and mediators that Israel will uphold a lasting cease-fire; and Hamas’ push for the release of hundreds of terrorists—not only convicted murderers but also high-risk individuals who could pose a severe security threat to Israel. In exchange for all remaining hostages, Hamas is demanding the release of key figures whose leadership and connections could enable the terror group to rebuild its military and operational networks.
As a result, the negotiations are expected to be difficult and fraught with crises, as Hamas seeks to secure its survival as a political entity in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel, with U.S. support, will aim to prevent that outcome—not only by ensuring Hamas is excluded from Gaza’s civilian governance but also by blocking any military resurgence.
Israel will also demand what it sought in the Lebanon agreement: the demilitarization of Gaza—removing weapons, military infrastructure and tunnels—to prevent another deadly attack on southern Israel in the future. However, while Lebanon has a government and army that are not in direct conflict with Israel and therefore accepted the demilitarization demand despite Hezbollah’s opposition, Gaza lacks any governing or military authority capable of restraining Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
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Israeli American hostage Keith Siegel released from Hamas captivity
(Photo: REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas)
For these reasons, the negotiations on implementing Phase II of the hostage deal are unlikely to succeed unless one side radically shifts its position. The chances of influencing Hamas are minimal, yet Israel has an interest in keeping the group intact until the second phase is completed. This is because a party is needed to facilitate the return of all hostages—both the living and the dead—one that can be somewhat relied upon and pressured by mediators when necessary, as was the case at the start of the current phase.
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This is where Netanyahu’s talks with Trump come into play: a key factor in the success of Phase II is their agreement on Phase III of the deal, which would address the final end to the war, Gaza’s reconstruction and the entity that will replace Hamas as the enclave's civilian government and law enforcement authority.
Trump wants a two-state solution
At first glance, there appears to be no disagreement between Washington and Jerusalem. Both Trump and Netanyahu seek the release of all hostages, and the White House has explicitly stated its desire to prevent Hamas from ruling Gaza or rebuilding its military strength.
However, one key point of contention remains: Trump is determined to end the war—almost at any cost—while Israel refuses to do so until Hamas is militarily and politically dismantled beyond recovery and all hostages are returned. The core issue in Gaza’s post-war arrangement is thus a matter of sequencing—whether the war should end before Hamas loses its grip on Gaza or only after its total collapse.
US President Donald Trump discusses relocation of Gaza Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan
This dilemma could be resolved if Trump agrees that in Phase II—following the hostages' release and the establishment of a stable cease-fire—the U.S. would formally affirm Israel’s right to act with full force if Hamas violates the agreement.
Such an understanding, granting Israel what is diplomatically termed "hot pursuit" rights, could facilitate the transition to the next phase of the deal. Under this framework, all hostages would be returned, and in exchange, Israel would commit to a stable cease-fire and a full withdrawal from Gaza, with certain security arrangements such as a perimeter buffer zone.
Early discussions between Israel and the U.S. have reportedly produced an understanding that a transitional governing body—comprised of the Palestinian Authority, the UAE, Egypt and possibly Qatar—would oversee Gaza’s civilian administration. This phase would also include serious discussions on normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, contingent on Israel agreeing to a political process leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
It is important to note that Trump has openly voiced support for a two-state solution. His 2020 "Deal of the Century" explicitly outlined a future Palestinian state encompassing the West Bank and Gaza. Furthermore, his repeated demands for the temporary relocation of hundreds of thousands of Gazans to Jordan and Egypt may serve as leverage—both on Arab states and Hamas—to accept a new civilian authority in Gaza and engage in a long-term resolution of the Palestinian issue.
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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi
(Photo: Martin Sylvest / RITZAU SCANPIX / AFP)
The threats of large-scale displacement and withholding Gaza’s reconstruction funds as long as Hamas remains in power are Trump's primary tools to enforce his vision for a hostage release and cease-fire deal—including on Israel.
On Tuesday in Washington, Netanyahu and Trump are expected to discuss not only the Gaza situation but also steps to neutralize Iran’s nuclear and regional threats. There will likely be agreements on diplomatic efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, alongside discussions on potential military action should Iran push forward with weaponizing its nuclear program. It is expected that both sides will agree that if Iran begins producing a nuclear warhead, Israel and the U.S. would respond with coordinated action.
Other topics on the agenda include securing maritime routes in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid Houthi threats and stabilizing the cease-fire in Lebanon once the IDF completes its withdrawal.
Netanyahu is also expected to present Israel’s new defense doctrine, shaped by the lessons of October 7. This doctrine emphasizes a proactive strategy along all borders and in Israel’s ongoing "campaign between wars" (MABAM), targeting military buildups in Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank and potentially Syria.
Trump is likely to support this proactive approach and commit to aiding Israel in implementing it. However, he may also demand that Netanyahu take political risks—especially within his fragile coalition—if Israel aligns more closely with Trump’s proposed framework for post-war Gaza.