Saudi Arabia is preparing a new military offensive against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, with plans under consideration ranging from a focused coastal assault to a broader attack on several fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters.
The operation, expected to begin in the coming weeks, would be led on the ground by Yemeni forces overseen by Riyadh and backed by Saudi airstrikes, according to six people familiar with the preparations.
More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized depending on the scale of the operation, the officials said.
A central objective is to reverse the Houthis’ rapid gains last month, when they pushed down Yemen’s coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and serves as the southern gateway for shipping between Asia and the Mediterranean. Its importance has increased sharply this year as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed by the conflict with Iran.
Saudi officials are considering two main options, according to Gulf and Yemeni officials. One would concentrate the offensive around Bab el-Mandeb. The other would combine that coastal operation with simultaneous attacks in Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.
Riyadh has concluded that renewed peace negotiations with the Houthis are not viable while the group controls Bab el-Mandeb and the strategic leverage that comes with it, Western diplomats and a Gulf official said.
The precise timing remains unclear. Sources gave estimates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.
Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected any operation to be considerably narrower than the Saudi-led intervention launched in 2015.
“As much they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb,” Ratney said. “Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic.”
US intelligence, Turkish drones and Pakistani support
Washington is already providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, according to a Western diplomat.
Direct U.S. combat involvement, however, is not expected. Reuters previously reported that President Donald Trump rejected requests from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support including U.S. airstrikes.
Turkey and Pakistan have also supplied military equipment used by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials said.
Pakistan last month sent four cargo aircraft carrying equipment including air-defense systems, light artillery, drones and counter-drone systems to Aden, the seat of Yemen’s Saudi-backed government, according to a Pakistani official.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
(Photo: Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Turkish Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS)
Pakistani military advisers are also operating alongside Saudi counterparts in support of Yemeni forces, while Turkish drones previously purchased by Riyadh have been deployed over Yemen, officials said.
Saudi Arabia is particularly concerned about protecting its oil infrastructure and other strategic sites from Houthi missile and drone attacks during the campaign and has sought defensive support from several allies.
Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the kingdom’s borders and assist with missile and drone interceptions, according to a Pakistani official. Islamabad has not decided to send troops into Yemen for combat operations, the official said.
France has meanwhile announced plans to deploy defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.
Fractured anti-Houthi forces
Any ground offensive would depend heavily on the disparate Yemeni factions armed and trained by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during earlier stages of the civil war.
Analysts say those forces remain divided and may struggle to sustain a major campaign against the Houthis.
Yemeni government forces fighting the Houthis in the Al-Hazm area
(Photo: Media Centre Of The Yemeni Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS)
“Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organised or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force,” Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha said.
Yemeni factions were further weakened by clashes last winter after UAE-backed southern forces attempted to seize territory in eastern Yemen and pursue secession, only to be defeated by Saudi-backed forces.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, said Riyadh’s forces had so far focused on stabilizing the front but were preparing to shift to the offensive.
“The priority so far has been to defend the positions on the ground and stabilize the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive,” he said. “Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces.”