The surprise attack by Sunni rebels in Aleppo is likely strongly tied to the cease-fire between Israel and the Shiite Hezbollah terror group. The rebels, supported by Turkey, have maintained control of Syria's northern Idlib province after the Assad regime, with help from Russia and Iran, expelled them from most of the country. In Idlib, they regrouped, united splinter Sunni factions, and continued their fight.
The turning point came when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah launched his war against Israel on October 8, 2023, prompting Iran to intensify its support for its proxy, especially in recent months.
Sunni insurgents launch an offensive on Aleppo
To disrupt Iranian assistance to Hezbollah, the IDF reportedly carried out approximately 70 airstrikes in Syria, targeting not only arms routes along the Lebanese border but also warehouses and installations belonging to Hezbollah and other Shiite militias across the country.
These militias, alongside Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have been instrumental in propping up the Assad regime and fighting the insurgents in Idlib.
While Russia is considered Assad's primary military ally, its forces primarily provide air support, which has proven insufficient to push the insurgents back or inflict significant casualties on them.
Damascus needs ground forces, a role traditionally filled by the IRGC and Syrian Shiite militias commanded by Hezbollah. However, Hezbollah is currently severely weakened and unable to assist Assad's small and poorly armed military. Over the past year, these forces have been preoccupied with aiding Hezbollah in Lebanon and launching attacks on Israel from within Syria.
The repeated Israeli strikes have likely enabled the rebels to regroup, and with Turkish support, they launched their offensive. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an ardent Sunni Islamist, controls territory bordering Idlib province and supplies the rebels with arms.
While Turkey has sought to repair relations with Assad’s regime, Erdoğan appears unwilling to miss the opportunity presented by Damascus’ weakness following the war in Lebanon. For Erdoğan, religious motivations seem to outweigh Turkey’s national security considerations.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consulted with security officials to assess the implications of the surprise attack in northern Syria. Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, holds immense economic significance, potentially rivaling Damascus. The region is also home to Syria’s largest military-industrial facilities.
In the short term, the attack may have a positive impact on Israel's security. Assad, in his weakened state, is likely to avoid confrontation with Israel, recognizing that Hezbollah cannot come to his aid. Should the IRGC deploy forces in Syria, they would likely become targets for IDF strikes, further weakening Assad's regime and military capacity.
Assad, therefore, will be in no rush to bring Iranian forces into Syria or allow his territory to be used extensively for transferring military equipment and logistical support to Hezbollah in Lebanon. He is focused on preserving his regime, and a military confrontation with Israel could further weaken his already fragile armed forces. Netanyahu explicitly warned Assad of such consequences in a recent interview.
Russia’s primary interest is to stabilize the Assad regime to enable its companies to profit from reconstruction projects after Syria’s devastating civil war. However, as long as the insurgency persists, such rebuilding efforts cannot proceed, making an escalation with Israel counterproductive to Moscow's goals. Additionally, Russia’s involvement in the war in Ukraine limits its capacity to assist Assad as it once did.
In the short term, Assad is likely to tread carefully. He will aim to maintain ties with Iran, which he still relies on, while avoiding actions that could provoke devastating Israeli strikes on his military. For now, he may permit limited assistance to Hezbollah to pass through Syria, though not on the scale of previous years.
Looking ahead, Israel must remain vigilant. While Assad’s weakening benefits Israel in some respects, the Sunni insurgents also pose a significant threat. Hamas exemplifies the dangers of Sunni jihadism, and if Assad's regime collapses and Sunni insurgents gain control of Syria, Israel could face an even greater security challenge.
For now, the insurgents' offensive appears to weaken not only Assad but also Iran and Hezbollah. This dynamic may even push Assad toward seeking renewed ties with the West and moderate Sunni Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Nonetheless, Israel must prepare for the potential emergence of a Sunni jihadist threat on its northeastern border.