Israel’s next election is increasingly likely to be moved up to September, with September 15 emerging as the most realistic date and September 8 also under discussion, after Haredi parties told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu they do not want to advance the draft exemption bill.
The election for the 26th Knesset is currently scheduled for October 27, but that date now appears unlikely to hold. September 1, previously discussed as a possibility, is now definitively off the table.
The shift came Sunday evening after representatives of the Haredi parties informed Netanyahu that they were not interested in advancing the bill, which would exempt tens of thousands of yeshiva students from IDF service while drafting only a small number.
Behind the scenes, Haredi lawmakers apparently do not want to commit to a version of the bill that may not pass, or give it their approval without receiving anything in return. It is also possible they are signaling to Netanyahu that he should try to pass the legislation without their explicit consent.
Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Boaz Bismuth had been expected to publish the version of the bill that would be brought to a vote ahead of its approval in the Knesset plenum in second and third readings.
Netanyahu’s representatives spoke Sunday morning with Haredi representatives, updating them on developments and on the prime minister’s willingness to advance the bill. Those talks followed Netanyahu’s meetings in recent days with wavering coalition lawmakers in an effort to persuade them to vote in favor.
After learning Sunday morning that Bismuth intended to publish the bill, Haredi representatives said they wanted to consult with their rabbis. By evening, they returned to Netanyahu with an answer: they do not want the draft law.
Political officials said the Haredi parties “simply do not want to be signed onto a law that has a high chance of turning into a farce.” One assessment is that the Haredi parties are publicly saying they are stepping away from the draft law, while expecting the prime minister to continue advancing it without them.
Rabbi Dov Landau, the leader of the Lithuanian Haredi public, instructed Degel HaTorah lawmakers not to move forward with the draft exemption law. Those close to the rabbi believe there is no serious feasibility within the coalition to pass the law at this stage.
Degel HaTorah lawmakers conveyed a message saying, “We will not be part of advancing the draft law and will not act actively to pass the law before elections.” At this stage, it remains unclear whether they mean only that they will avoid promoting it, or whether they will oppose the bill later as well.
Rabbi Moshe Hillel Hirsch, a leader of Degel HaTorah, told lawmakers that he opposes the bill in the form presented to him, and that if they want to move forward, they should ask Rabbi Landau, who wants to see what is ultimately proposed. Rabbi Landau does not trust Netanyahu and does not want to give him another opportunity to string the Haredi parties along.
Likud MK Dan Illouz, one of the most prominent coalition voices opposing the draft exemption outline, said: “Don’t believe the tricks: this is not Bismuth’s ‘draft law,’ it is an exemption law ordered by Deri and Gafni, who are not even willing to support it publicly. They are acting as if Likud is a doormat they can play with however they want.
“At a time when all fronts are open and there is no decision on any of them, instead of exempting soldiers from service, the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee should be dealing with victory in the war,” Illouz added. “Likud cannot abandon those who serve for backroom deals that have no majority. It is time to return to our core values: service for all and security before coalition survival.”
Shas chairman Aryeh Deri wants elections held on September 15, while Degel HaTorah prefers September 8, leaving the path to an agreed date unresolved.
Netanyahu, for his part, has not given up on trying to drag out developments until October, hoping to gain more time that could serve him on the security and diplomatic fronts.