Senior legal officials said Thursday night they believe the latest draft of the conscription bill, released by Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair Boaz Bismuth, is unlikely to survive a High Court of Justice review. Their assessment is blunt: the proposal does not meet the IDF’s manpower needs and does not advance equality before the law.
The officials pointed to comments made earlier this month by High Court justices, led by Deputy Chief Justice Noam Sohlberg, during the most recent hearing on the exemption framework. Professional officials who took part in discussions with top legal, defense and Finance Ministry staff said the new plan “institutionalizes draft evasion and entrenches the ongoing non-enlistment of Haredi men.” They argued that the proposal would perpetuate avoidance of service while immediately restoring stipends to yeshivas without bringing a single new soldier into uniform.
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(Photo: Yair Sagi, Reuven Castro, Amit Shabi, AFP, Alex Kolomoisky, Yoav Dudkevitch, AP)
According to those officials, the plan fails to meet Israel’s security and economic needs and leaves the military without any meaningful enforcement tools. Any sanctions included in the draft would be communal, such as cutting budgets from yeshivas and Haredi institutions, rather than directed at individuals who avoid service. “A conscription law without personal sanctions is a toothless law,” one official said. “Its practical purpose seems to be buying time for the coalition without increasing enlistment.” They added that the government is placing a heavy manpower and budget burden on the defense establishment and the public instead of addressing draft avoidance.
What the proposal includes
Bismuth’s draft states that national civilian service in auxiliary units of the Prime Minister’s Office would qualify as service. It defines a Haredi person as anyone who studied in Haredi institutions for at least two years between ages 14 and 18. As a result, draft targets would not apply only to full-time yeshiva students but broadly to “graduates of Haredi education.”
The IDF has projected that although fighting in Gaza has ended, reserve duty days will rise in 2026 to roughly 110 per battalion, compared with a 2025 target of about 70 days. The cost of reserve duty in 2025 is estimated at 200 billion shekels. Defense officials told the committee that the army has already taken steps over the past two years to expand its regular forces to reduce the burden on reservists and believes mandatory service should be extended beyond the current 30 months.
Finance Ministry officials told lawmakers that wartime economic losses from the start of the conflict through the end of 2025 are estimated at 130 billion shekels. Reserve service during that period is expected to cost an additional 70 billion shekels.
Military officials added that even after the drawdown from Gaza, the army will have to reinforce defenses for both regular and reserve forces protecting southern communities, especially those near the Gaza border. The IDF remains heavily deployed along the borders with Lebanon and Syria and has expanded operations in the West Bank to prevent Hamas from gaining ground.
Can the coalition pass the bill?
United Torah Judaism chair Yitzhak Goldknopf responded Thursday with a vague statement saying the Council of Torah Sages had instructed the party to support only a plan that protects Torah study and imposes no sanctions on students. He said the proposal will be brought before senior rabbis for a final decision.
Amid widespread public opposition and internal dissent within Likud, coalition officials acknowledged that the bill’s fate rests largely with Goldknopf. Likud officials said that without his support, it is unlikely a majority can be reached, as additional lawmakers might join him in voting against the bill for other reasons.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not spoken publicly about the proposal but associates said he supports it, describing it as an opportunity to “transform the IDF.” They claimed the plan would bring Haredi enlistment to roughly 50 percent within five years, excluding Hasidic communities, the Jerusalem Faction and Neturei Karta. They also insisted the sanctions are “harsh,” saying that failing to reach 70 percent of the recruitment target would eliminate all state funding for yeshivas. “This is an excellent law and it will pass,” they said.
Goldknopf, who previously supported dissolving the Knesset and has signaled opposition to any bill that includes sanctions, is still seen as undecided. Haredi officials said Thursday night they believe tensions may ease now that the draft has been published, and that with rabbinic pressure from leading Lithuanian rabbis who back the bill, Goldknopf may ultimately abstain rather than oppose it.
Within Likud, seven to eight lawmakers are already signaling objections. Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel has announced she will vote against the bill and said she has support from a group of additional lawmakers. MK Moshe Saada said the proposal offers no meaningful improvement for combat soldiers, noting that the bill sets no combat enlistment targets at all. He called for laws that reward those who serve, saying, “You served, you receive; you didn’t serve, you don’t.”
Likud officials said that if the coalition begins the voting process with a deficit of two United Torah Judaism votes, the bill might never reach the full Knesset due to the lack of a majority.