Sources who have spoken in recent days with President Donald Trump said they came away with the impression that he is inclined to order a military strike against Iran. One factor persuading him in that direction, they said, is an alleged Iranian assassination plot against him that was ordered by the ayatollahs.
However, similar to remarks the president made last week, the sources said they believe Trump would initially order a limited or targeted strike, similar to last June’s Midnight Hammer operation, in the hope that it would push Iran to accept his demands in negotiations.
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(Photo: REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst, Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS, INSS)
If a limited strike fails and Iran continues to reject U.S. conditions, Trump would order a sustained campaign to weaken Iran and erode the regime, rather than a single decisive blow. The U.S. military has convinced him that toppling the regime through military action is not realistic and that a strategy of attrition, coupled with encouraging public unrest, should be considered.
American sources said Trump has decided on a prolonged campaign lasting weeks rather than a short, powerful and decisive strike. Pentagon and U.S. military experts, along with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Israeli defense officials who traveled to Washington, persuaded him that even a forceful short operation would not achieve the objectives.
The sources said Qatar and Turkey are exerting heavy pressure on Trump not to carry out a major strike, as are some people in his inner circle who are urging him to continue pursuing diplomacy. They expressed concern that if the United States signs an agreement with Iran, it would address only the nuclear issue and not ballistic missiles or Tehran’s regional proxies, which could be seen as highly problematic from Israel’s perspective.
U.S. and Iranian representatives are expected to meet Thursday in Geneva for talks viewed as a last-ditch effort to reach a compromise before Trump might order a strike. According to officials briefed on internal administration discussions who spoke with The New York Times, both sides are expected to consider a proposal that would provide an off-ramp to avoid war by allowing Iran to maintain a limited nuclear enrichment program for civilian purposes only.
The U.S. Justice Department revealed in November 2024 that it had foiled an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump before the most recent elections were held. According to an indictment filed in federal court in Manhattan, Farhad Shakeri, identified as affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, was tasked with preparing a surveillance plan targeting Trump and ultimately killing him.
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The weapons seized from the defendants accused of plotting the attempted assassination of Trump
(Photo: US Department of Justice)
Meanwhile, Netanyahu held a security consultation Tuesday evening with Defense Minister Israel Katz and senior defense officials. Israel is preparing for a possible U.S. strike in the near term, which could occur at any moment or be delayed until the weekend or early next week. Israeli officials assess that Washington would not surprise Israel and would provide advance notice. There is also a significant possibility that the United States would ask Israel to join the attack.
In a related development, Secretary of State Marco Rubio postponed his planned visit to Israel from Saturday night to Monday next week.
Netanyahu: 'No one knows what the day will bring'
Netanyahu scrapped his original address for the 40-signature debate in the Knesset and instead delivered a short, dramatic speech that appeared to lay the groundwork for a potential war with Iran. “These are complex and challenging days. No one knows what the day will bring. We are keeping our eyes open and are prepared for any scenario,” Netanyahu said.
He added: “I have made clear to the ayatollah regime that if they make what could be the gravest mistake in their history and attack the State of Israel, we will respond with a force they cannot even imagine. This is not the time for divisiveness. On the eve of Purim, in those days as in this time, we must close ranks and stand shoulder to shoulder. I have full confidence in our strength and in our soldiers, men and women alike.”
Opposition leader Yair Lapid responded in the plenum, saying, “There is a significant chance we are on the brink of a campaign against Iran. If that campaign comes — and it should come — we will all set everything aside. All disagreements will be put into deep freeze until the storm passes. As in the past, I will mobilize for Israel’s public diplomacy efforts and to strengthen Israel’s international standing. As in the previous strike, I will go wherever necessary, from CNN to the British Parliament, and tell them: ‘You know I am the opposition leader, you know Netanyahu and I are rivals, but Iran must be struck with full force. The ayatollah regime must be toppled.’”
Lapid called on Netanyahu to bomb Iran’s oil fields, even at the price of a “careful confrontation” with the United States, in order to severely damage Iran’s economy. “Here at home, I say again — Israel must not hesitate. Even at the cost of a careful confrontation with the Americans. Bomb the oil fields and energy facilities as well. That is what will bring down the ayatollahs,” he said.
U.S. military transport and refueling aircraft were documented Tuesday at Ben Gurion Airport, part of a large American force buildup in the Middle East in preparation for a possible strike on Iran. Earlier, the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford was spotted near Crete after being redeployed from the Caribbean, reportedly in part to help defend Israeli cities if Iran retaliates.