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A New Arab spring in Tunisia? Islamism and the political future

Analysis: Tunisia faces escalating protests over economic hardship and political repression, drawing comparisons to the 2011 Arab Spring; opposition groups see an opportunity to regain influence as public discontent grows

Amine Ayoub|
Tunisia is witnessing a new wave of protests that bring back memories of the popular uprising that toppled President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. With increasing unrest and the number of detainees reaching a thousand, a fundamental question arises: Are we on the verge of a second Arab Spring in Tunisia? And could these developments lead to the return of Islamists to the political scene?
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חגיגות בתוניס לאחר הודעת הנשיא
חגיגות בתוניס לאחר הודעת הנשיא
Tunis, Tunisia
(Photo: Reuters)
Protests have erupted in the capital, Tunis, and other areas such as Sbeitla and Sidi Bouzid, where the Tunisian revolution ignited over a decade ago. These demonstrations followed the 14th anniversary of Ben Ali's fall, amid economic turmoil and a deepening political deadlock. Protesters have called for the release of political detainees and social justice, arguing that conditions in the country have not improved since the revolution.
In response to these demonstrations, authorities have resorted to arbitrary arrests and heavy security crackdowns, drawing condemnation from human rights organizations such as the Tunisian League for Human Rights. These actions further deepen the rift between the government and citizens, particularly as it has been revealed that many detainees had not even participated in the protests.
In this charged atmosphere, the National Salvation Front, an opposition coalition that includes the Islamist Ennahda movement, has re-emerged as a major political force. Once the dominant political group in Tunisia after the revolution, Ennahda was sidelined following President Kais Saied’s exceptional measures on July 25, 2021, which included dissolving parliament and suspending the constitution.
However, with growing public discontent, Ennahda and its allies may find an opportunity to regain political influence. While President Saied faces increasing criticism over his restrictions on freedoms and economic failures, the opposition seeks to capitalize on popular dissatisfaction to reshape the political landscape.
Tunisia's worsening economic situation adds another layer of complexity to the political crisis. Rising unemployment rates, deteriorating public services, and the declining value of the Tunisian dinar are pushing citizens to the streets in search of solutions. Instead of addressing these root issues, the government continues to rely on security crackdowns — an approach seen by analysts as ineffective and potentially leading to a broader social explosion.
At the same time, President Saied is accused of misleading Tunisians with rhetoric about fighting corruption without delivering real economic progress. As economic and social conditions deteriorate, frustration grows, creating an opening for sidelined political forces like Ennahda to regain traction.
The U.S. has long viewed Tunisia as a key partner in North Africa, particularly after the Arab Spring, when it was seen as a rare democratic success story. Washington has provided economic aid and military assistance to Tunisia, largely to support its counterterrorism efforts and stability.
However, as political repression increases under President Saied, U.S. policymakers face a dilemma—whether to continue supporting a government accused of rolling back democratic gains or to pressure it for reforms.
American interests in Tunisia also tie into broader regional dynamics. A return of Islamists to power, particularly Ennahda, could affect U.S. relations with other regional players, such as Egypt and the UAE, which strongly oppose Islamist movements. Furthermore, instability in Tunisia risks spillover effects, including increased migration to Europe and the potential for radicalization, both of which concern U.S. and European policymakers alike.
For Washington, the challenge is to balance stability and democratic principles. If Tunisia’s crisis deepens, the U.S. may be forced to reevaluate its stance, potentially using economic leverage or diplomatic pressure to encourage dialogue and political reforms.
The presidency plans to hold a national dialogue in March, but with the exclusion of Islamists and their allies. Many argue that excluding a major opposition force will only deepen divisions and intensify the crisis. If the government does not take these protests seriously, it risks further unrest, which could destabilize the country.
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While some believe the protests reflect the vitality of Tunisia’s political landscape, others argue that without a strong economic vision, the opposition will struggle to mount a serious challenge to the regime. The real question is whether the government will take a more inclusive approach or continue to rely on repression to maintain control.
Tunisia faces three possible outcomes in the coming months. The first scenario is continued repression, where authorities suppress protests and consolidate power, but at the risk of sparking a larger uprising. The second is an escalation of protests that forces the government into concessions, possibly including political dialogue and the release of detainees. The third is the return of Islamists, with Ennahda capitalizing on public anger to regain influence, either through elections or mass mobilization.
Each of these scenarios depends on how the government chooses to respond to the current unrest. If it maintains a hardline stance, opposition forces could strengthen their position, particularly if economic conditions continue to deteriorate. On the other hand, if President Saied opts for dialogue and reforms, he may be able to ease tensions and maintain control without further destabilization.
Amine AyoubAmine Ayoub
Tunisia stands at a critical crossroads in its political history. With escalating protests, a deteriorating economy, and deep political divisions, all outcomes remain possible. The key question now is: Is the country heading toward a new Arab Spring? And will Islamists play a role in shaping the next phase?
The coming months will provide the answer, depending on how both the government and opposition navigate this intensifying crisis. Additionally, U.S. interests in the region could play a role in shaping Tunisia’s political trajectory, as Washington weighs the need for stability against its democratic ideals.
  • Amine Ayoub, a Middle East Forum Fellow, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco
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