Amid escalating unrest in Iran, Israeli intelligence estimates that more than 4,000 people have been killed in the nationwide protests, significantly higher than the figures acknowledged so far by the Islamic Republic. The assessment comes as Iran’s government admitted that at least 3,000 people have died, while human rights groups and opposition sources put the toll far higher.
According to Israeli officials, the dead include hundreds of regime personnel, some of whom were likely killed by protesters, possibly armed through external channels. At the same time, an Iranian human rights group reported that at least 16,784 protesters have been arrested since the demonstrations erupted.
Iran protests
Israeli officials said the unfolding crisis is now being discussed at the highest levels of government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet is being briefed on scenarios that include the potential collapse of the Iranian regime and direct U.S. intervention, according to an Israeli government official.
A second Israeli official said the current assessment in Jerusalem is that President Donald Trump has already decided to intervene, though the scope, timing and form of any American action remain unclear. The official cautioned that the evaluation is based on signals from Washington and not on a formal U.S. announcement.
The mounting bloodshed has prompted a growing number of countries to urge their citizens to leave Iran immediately. France, Canada, Germany, the United States, Japan and New Zealand are among those issuing travel warnings or evacuation advisories, citing the deteriorating security situation and the regime’s sweeping crackdown.
The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the United States has warned Gulf states to prepare for the possibility of an American strike on Iran. According to the report, Saudi Arabia and other regional countries are working behind the scenes to dissuade the Trump administration from taking military action.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has issued a series of unusually direct messages to Iranian protesters in recent days, said Tuesday that the situation in Iran had crossed a threshold.
“I think it’s a lot,” Trump said when asked about the death toll. “It’s more than too much. Nobody has been able to give me an exact number. I’ve heard numbers. It’s a lot. We’ll probably find out within the next 24 hours.”
Pressed to explain what he meant when he told Iranian protesters that “help is on the way,” Trump responded, “You’ll find out soon,” adding that “it’s a good idea for Americans to leave Iran.”
Earlier, Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that he had canceled planned talks with Iranian officials and urged protesters to continue demonstrating.
“Iranian patriots, keep protesting. Take over your institutions,” Trump wrote. “Keep the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a heavy price.”
He added that all meetings with Iranian officials had been canceled “until the senseless killing of protesters stops,” concluding with the slogan “MIGA,” short for Make Iran Great Again.
Iranian officials responded angrily. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran was “declaring the names of the main killers of the Iranian people: Trump and Netanyahu.”
Trump’s message came just one day after he revealed that Iranian officials had floated the idea of renewing negotiations with Washington over Iran’s nuclear program, an offer he signaled he might consider. However, in light of the scale of the killings now emerging, Trump appeared dismissive of what some analysts see as an attempt by Tehran to buy time and avert a possible strike.
Inside Iran, the regime continues to impose a near-total communications blackout, now in its fifth consecutive day, in an apparent effort to suppress documentation of the crackdown. A partial easing on Tuesday morning allowed some residents to make phone calls abroad for the first time since the shutdown began.
Those who managed to speak with foreign media described a heavy security presence in Tehran, including riot police and paramilitary forces deployed at major intersections. Residents said authorities ordered shop owners in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar to reopen in an attempt to project an image of normalcy. The bazaar was one of the focal points of the unrest, which erupted in late December amid spiraling inflation and the collapse of the Iranian rial.
Iranian officials have acknowledged the death toll but continue to blame “terrorists” for the violence, accusing foreign enemies, including Israel and the United States, of orchestrating the unrest. A second senior official said an internal government report also cited at least 3,000 deaths, while cautioning that the figure could rise.
The opposition channel Iran International reported Tuesday that its own investigation found at least 12,000 people had been killed. CBS News cited a source in Washington with ties to Iran who said a “reliable source” estimated the toll at between 10,000 and 12,000.
Alongside the killings, arrests have surged. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that at least 16,784 people have been detained. Iran Human Rights, an Oslo-based group, said one detainee, Arfan Soltani, 26, from Karaj near Tehran, was arrested last Thursday, quickly tried and sentenced to death. Authorities informed his family the execution is expected to take place as early as Wednesday.
Iranian state television has continued to broadcast images of rallies supporting the regime and funerals for security personnel said to have been killed in Isfahan. Officials persist in portraying the protests as a foreign-backed conspiracy rather than a mass domestic uprising.
Earlier Tuesday, Iran’s Intelligence Ministry claimed it had intercepted a large shipment of “electronic items for espionage and sabotage,” alleging the equipment was smuggled into the country and intended for use in protest areas. The ministry said the devices could have enabled foreign “terrorists” to access mobile and internet networks in areas cut off from communications.
As casualty figures climb, international pressure mounts and evacuation calls spread, the crisis in Iran appears to be entering a more dangerous phase. With thousands dead, tens of thousands arrested and the United States signaling that patience is wearing thin, the coming days may determine whether the unrest remains an internal crackdown or escalates into a broader regional confrontation.