The small-party showdown that could decide Israel’s next government

Hendel and Tropper court disaffected religious Zionists and reservists, while Erdan, Edelstein, Gantz and Winter maneuver to survive the threshold and reshape the race for 61 seats

Jerusalem's Boiler Club, typically packed with late-night revelers, drew a different crowd Tuesday evening as young activists gathered for the launch of a new political party founded by former communications minister Yoaz Hendel and former education minister Chili Tropper.
The party, Zionist Home – The Reservists, aims to appeal to liberal religious Zionists, military reservists and right-leaning voters disillusioned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition.
יועז הנדל וחילי טרופר
יועז הנדל וחילי טרופר
Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel at the launch event of the Zionist Home – The Reservists party
(Photo: Alex Gamburg)
Among those joining the party is Shira Shapira, the mother of Aner Shapira, who was killed during Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack after shielding others inside a roadside bomb shelter near the Nova music festival. Fighting back tears, she recalled her son's final words to the young people hiding behind him.
"If I'm hit and I'm gone, keep following me," she said he told them.
Shapira said that message has stayed with her every day since his death and was the reason she decided to enter politics.
מימין: ענר שפירא ז"ל, משמאל: אמו שירה שפירא
מימין: ענר שפירא ז"ל, משמאל: אמו שירה שפירא
Shira and Aner Shapira
(Photo: Alex Gamburg, courtesy of the family)
Tropper, meanwhile, took aim at National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, saying he "operates only on TikTok." He said the party would seek control of the National Security Ministry for Hendel, who has repeatedly focused on what he describes as Israel's growing governance and law enforcement challenges.
The launch adds another contender to the race for right-wing voters dissatisfied with the current coalition.
One of the most contested voting blocs ahead of the upcoming October 27 election is the religious Zionist community, where many voters are searching for an alternative to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Ben-Gvir and Netanyahu. Tropper, who enjoys broad popularity within the community and beyond, believes there is an opening reflected in recent polling.
He and Hendel, both identified with liberal religious Zionism, hope to attract those voters alongside military reservists, whose role is reflected in the party's name. The party says it will insist on the passage of meaningful military conscription legislation for ultra-Orthodox men before joining any future governing coalition.
Despite widespread skepticism over its prospects, the party has cleared the 3.25% electoral threshold in several recent opinion polls. Still, polling at four or five seats in the 120-member Knesset is not considered a sufficiently secure position heading into an election campaign.
Unlike some parties in the political center, sometimes referred to as the "third bloc," that advocate for a broad national unity government, Hendel and Tropper say they seek a "Zionist government." Political analysts believe the party would be more likely to support a coalition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot than one headed by Netanyahu.
Some polls published over the past week suggest that Hendel and Tropper's entry into the race could help bring Eisenkot closer to the 61-seat majority needed to form a government without the support of the Arab Islamist Ra'am party. Meanwhile, parties seeking to replace Netanyahu remain concerned that another small party could split the vote.
Tropper has repeatedly said he intends to "act responsibly" and "not burn votes," a reference to parties failing to cross the electoral threshold. Political observers believe that if the party does not rise comfortably above that threshold before candidate lists are finalized, Tropper could ultimately join forces with Eisenkot or former prime minister Naftali Bennett rather than risk losing votes.

Running alone to the finish

Another new small party entering the race is being formed by former Likud ministers Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein. Both previously topped Likud's internal primaries and believe their party could play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the next election.
Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein
Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein
Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein
(Photo: Alex Kolomoisky, Rafi Kotz)
In meetings with supporters and potential candidates in recent days, the two have sought to distinguish themselves from other "third bloc" parties. They say they are the only new political platform not engaged in merger talks and intend to run independently through Election Day, at least for now.
The party is expected to campaign on several core principles, including equal military service obligations, support for a broad governing coalition that does not rely on political extremes, and opposition to depending on either ultra-Orthodox parties or Arab parties to form a government. At this stage, they also rule out partnering with Yair Golan and his left-wing The Democrats party, although associates suggest that position could change if Golan moderates some of his public rhetoric.
Erdan and Edelstein believe Netanyahu is nearing the end of his political career and argue that today's Likud has moved away from its traditionally statesmanlike image. They say that creates space for a new right-wing alternative, contending that politicians such as Tropper and Benny Gantz are not viewed by voters as part of the political right.
בני גנץ
בני גנץ
Benny Gantz
(Photo: Alex Kolomoisky)
The pair are currently meeting with prospective candidates, including former Beit Shemesh Mayor Aliza Bloch and former Olympic judoka Oren Smadga, whose son, Sgt. First Class (res.) Omer Smadga, was killed while fighting in the Gaza Strip.

Gantz searches for partners

Former defense minister Benny Gantz, leader of the Blue and White party, is also seeking to strengthen his political position ahead of the election.
In recent weeks, Gantz has held talks with Dedy Simhi, the former head of the Fire and Rescue Authority, about joining forces. Although both men have publicly endorsed the idea of an alliance, negotiations have stalled, largely over questions of leadership and who would head a joint party.
תא"ל דדי שמחי, אב שכול ונציב כבאות והצלה לשעבר, באירוע שבת תרבות בבאר שבע
תא"ל דדי שמחי, אב שכול ונציב כבאות והצלה לשעבר, באירוע שבת תרבות בבאר שבע
Dedy Simhi
(Photo: Be'er Sheva municpality)
The two are seeking to broaden any alliance by bringing in additional political figures in hopes of creating a slate capable of comfortably clearing the electoral threshold.
Simhi has advocated for a broad alliance that would include new political figures and present what he calls a winning team. But Blue and White has consistently polled below the electoral threshold, making it difficult to attract partners.
Political insiders say Simhi has not ruled out joining another political party, including Likud, and has received overtures from several coalition parties. According to political sources, intermediaries have also approached him with offers of a reserved spot on Likud's candidate list.
The uncertainty has left Blue and White's remaining lawmakers in political limbo. Some are uneasy with the prospect of Gantz running independently if doing so risks failing to enter parliament. Meanwhile, the ongoing negotiations have prevented them from seriously exploring other political options should they ultimately decide not to remain with Blue and White.
Political observers say the lawmakers are unlikely to remain loyal to Gantz at any cost if the party no longer appears capable of influencing the next government.
A former Blue and White official said Gantz's preferred option is to merge with either an existing or newly established party to avoid wasting votes from the anti-Netanyahu camp.
One scenario now circulating in Israeli political circles, though still considered unlikely, would see Gantz joining forces with Eisenkot's newly established Yashar party, with Eisenkot leading the joint ticket and serving as its candidate for prime minister. The remaining question, political observers say, is whether Gantz would be willing to accept such an arrangement.

Winter signals new party

Another figure who has yet to formally announce a bid for parliament but could significantly reshape the race among smaller parties, particularly within Netanyahu's political camp, is Brig. Gen. (ret.) Ofer Winter.
תת אלוף עופר וינטר
תת אלוף עופר וינטר
Ofer Winter
(Photo: Ido Erez)
Winter has been holding public events and small gatherings across the country while signaling that he may launch a new party. Political observers expect him to decide by the end of August.
At those events, Winter argues that voters disappointed with the current coalition will not return simply because he joins forces with Smotrich or Ben-Gvir. Instead, he says only candidates without prior political careers can satisfy what he describes as the public's demand for "new blood."
Although Winter previously served as military secretary to defense ministers Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman and maintains close ties with both men, internal polling suggests his strongest support comes from voters within Netanyahu's right-wing bloc.
Parties opposing Netanyahu say they are not concerned about Winter entering the race and believe his candidacy would draw support primarily from Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, is said to be concerned about the growing number of small parties competing for votes on the right.
According to political sources, the prime minister believes he can win back disappointed coalition voters by using the large number of reserved spots on Likud's candidate list to recruit high-profile figures. Among those he has reportedly approached are former strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer and former military chief and defense minister Gabi Ashkenazi, both of whom have so far declined.
With roughly one month remaining before parties must submit their candidate lists, political observers expect Netanyahu to focus on consolidating his political bloc only after Likud completes its internal primaries.
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