More than four years after invading Ukraine, Russia’s strategic position is deteriorating: the Russian army’s advance deep into Ukrainian territory has nearly stalled, economic institutions have been forced to acknowledge that sanctions are beginning to hurt the Russian economy and social media is filling with footage of small and medium-sized businesses closing one after another across the vast country, amid a decline in Russians’ purchasing power.
The worsening situation is also reflected in President Vladimir Putin’s popularity. According to poll data published this week, 27% of Russians were not afraid to say publicly that they are dissatisfied with the president’s performance — a roughly four-year low in the popularity of Putin, who has ruled with an iron fist for 26 years.
Smoke rises over Tuapse, Russia following a Ukrainian attack
(Video: Reutes)
Ukraine appears to have identified Russia’s distress and accelerated its strikes on Moscow’s soft underbelly: oil facilities that have become a main source of revenue for Russia and for financing its war industry. Over the past month, the port city of Tuapse, in Russia’s Krasnodar region, has become a symbol of the success of Ukraine’s military strategy.
Over the past two weeks, Ukrainian drones have struck the Tuapse maritime terminal and local refinery several times. The attacks sparked a series of fires at the refinery, and it took rescue forces days to extinguish them.
Meanwhile, locals described a genuine ecological disaster. In social media posts, they wrote about “raining oil” falling on the city for hours and black clouds shrouding it for days. Large amounts of oil were also reported to have leaked into the Black Sea. Environmental activists in the area began speaking of an “ecological disaster” whose consequences would take years to address.
The authorities in Moscow handled the Tuapse events in exactly the same way the Soviet regime handled the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which marked its 40th anniversary this week — by trying to silence them. State media played down the events and reported only minor damage in the city. At least one journalist from an independent outlet who arrived in Tuapse to speak with residents was arrested.
Millions of Russian citizens are still unaware of the disaster that struck the city because the authorities have been disrupting internet access in many cities across the country. The Kremlin says this is being done for security reasons, but many believe the real goal is to prevent negative information about the regime and the dire situation at the front from reaching citizens.
Authorities in Tuapse did acknowledge that a fire had broken out at the oil facility and asked residents to remain indoors and seal their windows. Meanwhile, however, they said they intended to open the bathing season as usual and expected many tourists to arrive in the area this summer.
The opposition website Meduza reported that authorities in Tuapse are trying to prepare the beaches for the summer and clean large oil stains from them. But the cleanup is being carried out only on the main beaches, while the rest of the coastline remains polluted. A report from the scene said that “the rocks on the shore are also covered in black sludge, and it is full of clumps of algae and oil-soaked logs that washed ashore.”
Ukrainian authorities openly acknowledge that strikes are being carried out against oil facilities deep inside Russia, and Ukrainian social media has shown visible satisfaction over reports from Tuapse.
Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon, for example, commented on the situation by saying: “Tuapse is effectively destroyed. The entire city is covered in black. What did the Russians think? That they would attack Ukrainian cities with missiles and we would respond with cheers and applause? We will destroy their cities in response.”
Another Ukrainian blogger, Denis Kazansky, added: “In March 2022, with the Russian invasion, residents in Tuapse wished success to Russian soldiers going to kill Ukrainians — now they are paying the price.”
The events in Tuapse and strikes on other oil facilities across Russia have led many in Ukraine to hope this will destabilize Putin’s rule and eventually bring about its collapse. Until recently, Putin’s rule appeared fairly stable despite the lack of progress at the front. But frequent internet outages, which have caused the collapse of many internet-based businesses, and reports of damage to oil facilities are generating significant criticism among citizens and, according to opposition outlets, among many figures in Russia’s security services as well.
As a result, a scenario in which Ukraine succeeds in shaking Putin’s rule no longer seems far-fetched.