Amid mutual threats between the United States and Iran following the collapse of talks, Israeli officials assess that Washington is unlikely to resume fighting before a two-week ceasefire expires on April 21.
Regarding President Donald Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade on Iran, Israeli officials see it as part of a ‘chess’ strategy in negotiations, signaling US readiness to renew hostilities. The approach is meant to show Tehran it is better off remaining in talks and compromising, or risk losing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and its oil exports.
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Israel assesses: US will exhaust Iran talks to the end
(Photo: Anna Moneymaker / AFP, Stringer / Getty Images)
“The goal is to compel NATO and other countries involved to open the straits,” an Israeli official familiar with the details said. “To create even stronger economic pressure on Iran and bring them back to negotiations with more realistic positions.”
Israel also assesses that the United States will not shorten the ceasefire and will seek to exhaust diplomatic efforts, while European countries and mediators are expected to try to intervene. At the same time, Israeli officials note that Washington showed determination in negotiations with Pakistan, in contrast to Iran, which has not demonstrated flexibility, while the US has not retreated from its red lines.
US vice president at the conclusion of talks with Iran in Pakistan
(Video: Reuters)
What is clear, officials say, is that Trump will not be deterred from resuming the war by domestic criticism. He understands he must end the conflict with an achievement. Accordingly, Israel is awaiting decisions in Washington while preparing for all scenarios, including an immediate resumption of fighting and possible escalation.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his inner cabinet to discuss various scenarios, including a more intense renewal of the war and a potential surprise Iranian attack. Meanwhile, Israeli officials assess that the likelihood of Trump visiting Israel on Independence Day is decreasing.