Recent days have been marked by shock around the world at the massive fires in Los Angeles, which claimed the lives of at least 27 people and caused damage worth tens of billions of dollars.
Historical natural disasters aren't exclusive to foreign nations — they can strike Israel as well. Despite numerous warnings, it seems the country — unaccustomed to extreme natural events — is unprepared for a large-scale disaster.
Destruction caused by fires in Los Angeles
(Video: Reuters)
The October 7 attack revealed the vast gap between the promises of Israeli officials and reality, proving that the lofty rhetoric of public statements often lacks substance. The issue is that contingency plans are often tested only in extreme cases, where the cost of failure is immeasurably high.
This is where the state comptroller steps in to warn and alert. However, his reports often make a brief splash in public discourse before fading away, with little public pressure on ministers to prepare for scenarios that are hard to imagine until they take place.
Successive state comptrollers, including the incumbent Matanyahu Englman, have repeatedly warned that Israel isn't prepared for a catastrophic natural disaster. For example, our region is historically prone to earthquakes, primarily along the Dead Sea Fault, part of the Syrian-African Rift.
Most tremors are of low intensity, but every century or so, a major earthquake occurs. The last significant one struck about 98 years ago, killing 130 and injuring 450 in Israel. Approximately 300 homes collapsed in that event when the area was far less populated. Today, a powerful earthquake could bring unprecedented challenges, including the risk of tsunamis.
According to Israel’s National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA), a major earthquake could cause extensive damage, including building collapses, transportation disruptions, road blockages, fires and hazardous material leaks.
The physical destruction would likely result in casualties, displaced residents and increased strain on emergency services. Public services might face partial to full shutdowns, including schools and workplaces, while critical rescue, health, military and police forces could be stretched thin.
Healthcare systems could become overwhelmed with the influx of injured people and suffer staff shortages. Essential supplies like food, medicine and fuel might face distribution challenges, prolonging recovery efforts.
The greatest danger lies along the Syrian-African Rift, running through eastern Israel from Eilat to the Golan Heights, including the Jordan Valley, Dead Sea and Arava Desert. Another seismic hotspot is the Yagur Fault, spanning northern Mount Carmel to Yokne’am, potentially affecting Haifa Bay and the Lower Galilee.
In 2005, Israel introduced National Master Plan 38 (TAMA 38) to strengthen approximately 80,000 buildings constructed before 1980.
However, most developers focused on the densely populated central region, where property values are higher, rather than vulnerable areas like Tiberias, where a series of minor quakes in 2018 caused structural damage. Residents then warned, “A major earthquake will come and the buildings will collapse.”
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Damage to support columns of Tiberias home following earthquake
(Photo: Roy Rubinstein)
State Comptroller Englman’s January 2024 follow-up report revealed little progress since his predecessor Yosef Shapira’s 2018 findings. By the end of 2022, only 4,755 residential buildings had been approved for reinforcement, with work completed on just 3,000 — mainly in central Israel. In the country's periphery, near fault lines, less than 1% of the required buildings were reinforced.
Despite some positive steps, such as establishing an inter-ministerial team to draft a long-term earthquake recovery strategy in 2022, many issues remain unresolved. For example, only 87 out of 1,600 schools requiring maintenance work were completed or nearing completion. Similarly, the Transportation Ministry has yet to standardize infrastructure checks for tunnels nationwide.
In October 2023, in a report delayed by the outbreak of war, Ynet examined transportation bridges for earthquake safety. Israel’s national transportation infrastructure company Netivei Israel reported at the time that only five of 34 bridges requiring repairs had not been addressed, but those have since been fixed.
Meanwhile, in Netivei Ayalon, it was found that 20 out of approximately 80 bridges were designed before 1992 and did not meet seismic standards. Senior officials told Ynet this week that the company addressed these bridges over the past two years at a cost of about NIS 50 million (approximately $13.2 million).
While significant improvements have been made, such as reinforcing critical bridges and introducing early warning systems, much remains to be done. In late October 2024, a false earthquake alert triggered by an explosion in Lebanon served as a stark reminder of these dangers but was quickly forgotten.
Israel also faces challenges from extreme heat, wildfires and floods exacerbated by climate change. In recent years, devastating fires have occurred, including the Carmel forest fire disaster in 2010 and smaller-scale fires in 2021 that burned 11,000 acres near Jerusalem.
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Yet, Israel’s firefighting services remain understaffed, with only about 2,100 firefighters—half the OECD-recommended number for a country of Israel's size. Financial constraints further hinder the fire department’s capacity to investigate incidents and learn from them.
Efforts have been made to bolster Israel’s firefighting capabilities, including adopting smaller fire trucks and establishing local teams. Awareness campaigns about the risks of hot, dry weather have also improved readiness.
However, forecasts predict longer and more intense heatwaves, which will likely increase wildfires and strain energy suppliers. The Environmental Protection Ministry, under Minister Idit Silman, has done little to address these challenges.
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Firefighting aircraft fighting brushfire in Jerusalem
(Photo: Israel Fire and Rescue Authority)
Floods pose another growing threat, with heavier rainfall over shorter periods overwhelming Israel’s outdated drainage infrastructure. A 2021 state comptroller report called for a nationwide strategy to reduce flood risks, yet coordination between government bodies remains fragmented.
Recent pilot projects have introduced flood detection systems on major highways, providing early warnings and preventing accidents. As these challenges mount, it’s clear that Israel must invest more in preparedness to mitigate the devastating impacts of natural disasters.