There is practically no doubt the deadly synagogue shooting attack on Friday in the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Neve Ya'akov, was carried out in retaliation for the IDF operation in Jenin a day earlier.
The IDF raid against armed Islamic Jihad militants resulted in the death of nine of them, and was branded a massacre by many on social media, and even some Palestinian officials.
The shooting attack in Jerusalem was carried out by a 21-year-old resident of east Jerusalem with no prior security offenses. At this point in time, deciding Israel's response to the attack on Friday, as well as to the shooting of two Jewish men in the capital on Saturday, seems more of a challenge than ever.
If any of the perpetrators of the attacks do turn out to be affiliated in any way with the Hamas terror group in Gaza or its commanders abroad, retaliatory steps would have to be taken against targets in the Strip.
But, if they were in fact working alone, there is little that Israeli security forces could do beyond monitoring social media posts, and using other intelligence means to find such individuals before they take action.
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Aftermath of the deadly terror attack in Jerusalem on Friday
(Photo: Yoav Davidovitch)
Meanwhile, forces in Jerusalem and the West Bank have been put on the highest levels of alert.
Israel must work to stop further violence from erupting, and prevent any retaliatory actions being taken by extremist Jewish groups in the capital or the West Bank.
In the long run, such incidents have the potential of increasing the violence that had been curtailed somewhat in the past few months. The forces' main mission must be to prevent such a scenario from playing out.
The security cabinet will convene on Saturday evening with most of its members having no experience in dealing similar crises. It is made up of mostly far-right, militant ministers who could force drastic and inciteful measures rather than steps to defuse tensions.
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Itamar Ben-Gvir and Benjamin Netanyahu at the scene of the deadly terror attack in Jerusalem on Friday
(Photo: Alex Kolomoisky)
There would be no point in any assault on large Palestinian cities in the West Bank or on Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem. Such action might only fan the flames ahead of the holy month of Ramadan, due to begin in under two months.
Since U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to arrive on Monday, U.S. attention is already concentrated on our region, and especially on Jerusalem.
Washington will probably put pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid any drastic measures. Jordan's King Abdullah II will also likely add his own pressure because he too has interests in maintaining calm in Jerusalem.
Now that Netanyahu has established what he calls a "real" right-wing government, all eyes are on him to see how he deals with this coalition's first real challenge.