In recent years, the Middle East has witnessed shifting geopolitical alliances, with Turkey emerging as a major force in the region. While Iran has long been considered Israel's most dangerous adversary due to its nuclear ambitions, military support for proxy groups, and anti-Israel rhetoric, a closer examination reveals that Turkey poses an even greater threat to Israel’s security.
This threat is not only shaped by Turkey's regional ambitions but also by its ideological alignment with groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, which directly challenges Israel's stability.
Historically, Israel and Turkey shared a pragmatic relationship, especially during the 1990s and early 2000s, based on mutual security concerns and common interests. However, this alliance began to deteriorate under the leadership of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose foreign policy has significantly shifted toward an aggressive stance in the Middle East. Erdogan’s Turkey has increasingly positioned itself as a challenger to the existing regional order, adopting policies that frequently clash with Israel's interests.
One of the most significant factors contributing to Turkey's potential threat to Israel is its close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), a Sunni Islamist movement founded in Egypt in 1928. The Muslim Brotherhood advocates for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate, based on the interpretation of Islamic law, and has historically been hostile to Israel’s existence.
Over the past decade, Turkey under Erdogan has forged an alliance with the MB, offering political, military, and financial support to the group and its affiliates across the Arab world. In countries like Egypt, Libya, and Syria, Turkey has supported Islamist factions linked to the MB, a move that directly undermines Israeli interests.
Turkey under Erdogan has forged an alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood, offering political, military, and financial support
The Brotherhood’s ideology is fundamentally opposed to the Jewish state, viewing Israel as an occupier of Muslim lands, and has historically called for its destruction. While Iran’s threat to Israel is largely military and focused on the nuclear issue, Turkey’s connection with the Muslim Brotherhood represents a deeper, ideological challenge. This is particularly concerning as Turkey uses its political and military clout to spread MB-affiliated ideologies throughout the Arab world, which could destabilize the region further and create more hostile environments for Israel.
Beyond ideological support, Turkey’s growing military presence in key conflict zones like Syria poses a direct security threat to Israel. Erdogan’s intervention in Syria, where Turkey has backed rebel groups, including some with links to extremist factions, has had significant implications for Israel.
While the Syrian civil war initially seemed distant from Israeli interests, the increasing presence of Turkish-backed forces in northern Syria, coupled with Erdogan’s repeated threats to attack Kurdish forces (who are key allies of the West and the U.S.), has created a volatile environment on Israel’s northeastern border.
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Turkish artillery targets Kurd forces in Northern Syria
(Photo: Ankara Defense Ministry )
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Sunni rebel forces in Aleppo in 2024 takeover of Syria
(Photo: Abdulaziz Ketaz / AFP)
Israel is already concerned about Iranian military entrenchment in Syria, where Iran has established bases and provided weapons to Hezbollah and other militias that pose a direct threat. However, Turkey’s expanding role in Syria presents a different kind of challenge. While Iranian forces are generally viewed as adversaries, Turkish forces might be seen as a more unpredictable threat, particularly given their support for Sunni Islamist factions and the potential for these groups to become proxies for Turkish interests.
If these forces, which may include MB-affiliated groups, gain power in Syria, they could target Israeli interests, either through direct military action or by encouraging anti-Israel sentiment in the region.
Moreover, Turkey’s military presence in Libya, where it backs the Government of National Unity (GNA) in the ongoing civil war, has raised concerns in Israel. The possibility of Turkey establishing a permanent military foothold in North Africa would create a new front against Israel, given the proximity of North Africa to Europe and Israel’s own borders. This could enable Turkey to destabilize the broader Mediterranean region, where Israel has critical economic and military interests, including gas exploration and maritime security.
Given Turkey’s growing role in Syria and its close ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, Israel faces a complex challenge in the region. The ideological underpinnings of Turkey's foreign policy make it a potentially more dangerous adversary than Iran. Iran’s threat is primarily centered around nuclear weapons and military support for Hezbollah and other groups, but Turkey’s influence is more widespread, ideological, and interconnected with larger regional power struggles. Turkey’s ambitions in the Middle East, coupled with its support for Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, threaten to reshape the regional order in ways that undermine Israel's security.
Israel should strengthen alliances with Arab nations wary of Turkish expansion
Given the growing threat from Turkey, Israel must reconsider its strategic posture in the region. While Iran remains a primary focus due to its nuclear program and military entrenchment, Israel must also account for the ideological challenge posed by Turkey’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood. Strengthening alliances with Arab nations that are wary of Turkish expansion—such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—could help counterbalance Turkey’s regional influence. Additionally, Israel must continue to build up its military capabilities, particularly in air defense and intelligence gathering, to counter Turkey’s growing military footprint in Syria and Libya.
Israel should also increase its diplomatic efforts to expose Turkey’s destabilizing role in the region, while reinforcing its own relationships with Kurdish groups and other non-Islamist factions in Syria. By doing so, Israel can maintain a flexible and comprehensive approach to the multi-dimensional threat posed by Turkey, ensuring its long-term security in an increasingly unstable Middle East.
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While Iran has long been considered Israel’s greatest threat, the rise of Turkey as a regional power with a close ideological connection to the Muslim Brotherhood represents a potentially more dangerous challenge. Turkey’s military interventions, its support for Sunni Islamist groups, and its ambitions to restore Ottoman-era influence place it in direct opposition to Israeli interests. As such, Israel must adopt a multi-pronged strategy that addresses both the military and ideological aspects of the Turkish threat. In doing so, Israel can safeguard its security and navigate the increasingly complex dynamics of the Middle East.
Amine Ayoub, a Middle East Forum fellow, is a policy analyst and writer