Saudi Arabia, Iran and 'the day after': Netanyahu heads to crucial meeting in Washington

The prime minister will meet with the U.S. president, with the goal of influencing American policy that is still being formed; At least one fateful decision will be made during the visit - which will likely affect both the fate of the hostage deal and the Netanyahu government 

The Iranian issue, "the day after" and normalization with Saudi Arabia are on the table as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu takes off Sunday morning for a significant visit to Washington, with the aim of influencing the new administration's policy priorities. The most important part of the trip will be Netanyahu's personal meeting with the new-old U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, during which the two will try to piece together the complex puzzle of the Middle East and set priorities on all the burning issues on the agenda. In focus: the hostage deal , the Gaza Strip, Hamas, "the day after" and the entire issue of reconstruction.
Netanyahu is the first foreign leader invited to meet with Trump, who will roll out the red carpet for him, host him at the official Blair House guest house, and invite him to a gala dinner at the White House.
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נחיתת בנימין ושרה נתניהו בוושינגטון, ארה"ב
נחיתת בנימין ושרה נתניהו בוושינגטון, ארה"ב
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife, Sara, disembark from the official WIng of Zion airplane on a previous visit to Washington
(Photo: Amos Ben Gershon, GPO)
Israel attaches great importance to the visit, and believes that the prime minister will be able to influence the way Trump shapes his administration's policy regarding the Middle East - along with the understanding that the U.S. president also has his own instincts and interests. Trump talked about the Middle East before his inauguration on January 20, but on many issues he has not yet made decisions. Netanyahu is interested in influencing this process, and an Israeli official even said that "only after his meeting with Trump will it be possible to formulate a policy. Until then, there is not much room to move forward."
Trump's ambitions for the "relocation" of Gazans in favor of rebuilding the Strip are no joke, and his statements are also consistent with his statements about deporting immigrants to Mexico. Even if there is currently no Arab country willing to accept the Palestinians, Trump continues to bring it up again and again - perhaps also for internal American considerations. In his view, it would be impossible to rehabilitate Gaza without evacuating the population - the land is contaminated, uninhabitable, and it would take years to clear the rubble and clean it up.

The Iranian issue: Agreement or military operation

After some hoped that the U.S., led by Trump, would cooperate with an attack on Iran, Israel is expecting to hear what the new president's plan is on the subject - and whether he intends to enter into a diplomatic dialogue with Tehran to reach a new nuclear agreement. Israel understands that the Iranian issue fits into the American perspective in the regional architecture, as there are other countries in the Middle East for which this issue is important - such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Therefore, the U.S. has obligations on this issue not only in the Israeli context.
Trump's goal is for Iran to not have a nuclear bomb, and the two options he faces are either an agreement or military action against Iran, Israeli or joint. Until one of these outcomes is achieved, Israel would like to see the U.S. impose crippling sanctions on Iran, alongside a credible military threat to deter it.
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ארה"ב דונלד טראמפ תדרוך התרסקות מטוס וושינגטון הרוגים חיפושים נהר פוטומק
ארה"ב דונלד טראמפ תדרוך התרסקות מטוס וושינגטון הרוגים חיפושים נהר פוטומק
U.S. President Donald Trumpdoes not want to start wars and Iran is not his war, but there are certainly wars of others in which he can help
(Photo: Alex Brandon/AP)
Trump, as has already been understood based on his statements and the statements of his deputy, will not initiate military action against Iran. He does not want to start wars and Iran is not his war, but there are certainly wars of others in which he can help. In doing so, Trump is effectively resolving for himself the contradiction between the desire to be a peacemaker and the ability to help Israel win on various fronts.
In addition to the president, Netanyahu is also expected to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz , House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and Senator Lindsey Graham. In the meetings he will hold, the parties will also discuss the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague against Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and the imposition of sanctions on ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan and his team. In addition, they will talk about the continued transfer of weapons from the U.S. to Israel, the maintenance of the cease-fire in Lebanon, the attitude toward the new regime in Syria, and the beginning of discussions on the security memorandum of understanding between the countries, with the current memorandum set to expire in 2028.
During his visit, Netanyahu will meet with his wife Sara, who is expected to join him from Miami after not seeing each other for 70 days. This is the first time Netanyahu has flown abroad since the arrest warrant was issued against him, and Sara said she will return to Israel with him on the Wing of Zion official airplane after extending her stay in the U.S. several times.

Phase 2 of the cease-fire and hostage deal

Negotiations on the second phase of the hostage deal and the cease-fire, which have actually already begun behind closed doors but not formally, are scheduled to begin on Monday - on the 16th day after the cease-fire in the Gaza Strip comes into effect, as stipulated in the agreement. But on Saturday night Netanyahu announced that he will not send a team to Doha or Cairo, and right now it appears that the talks will be conducted in dialogues through envoy Steve Witkoff.
Netanyahu holds onto promises from former President Joe Biden (in writing) and President Trump (oral), which state that Israel will be able to return to fighting in the Gaza Strip without it being considered a "violation" as long as no agreements are reached in negotiations. But, it is clear to everyone that it is much more complex. The Americans are busy building pillars for strategic policy, and Trump is likely to ask - and even demand - the prime minister for more time, and not to return to fighting.
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סטיב וויטקוף בכיכר החטופים
סטיב וויטקוף בכיכר החטופים
President Donald Trump's Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv
(Photo: Dana Koppel)
From the statements made this week by Donald Trump's Middle East envoy , Steve Witkoff, it can also be understood that the administration does not want to see a return to fighting so quickly - and demands that the negotiations be exhausted to the end. However, voices can be heard in the administration expressing doubt about the ability to fully implement the agreement. As part of the negotiations on phase two of the deal, the parties are also supposed to discuss the issue of "the day after" in Gaza, which is related to a crucial decision that may be made at the Netanyahu-Trump meeting - the answer to the question of what comes first: dealing with the Iranian threat or normalization with Saudi Arabia .
The U.S. and Israel know that the Saudis will not come to the table unless there is a permanent cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and a "political horizon" for the Palestinians, and it is still unclear as to what exactly it will demand from Israel in general and Netanyahu in particular on a practical or declarative level. It is not impossible that Netanyahu will try to convince Trump during their meeting to deal with the Iranian threat first. He will argue that this will also serve the interests of the Saudis and will give them time, without pressure, to make decisions regarding the Gaza Strip.
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If Trump prefers to start with Saudi Arabia, it could put Netanyahu's government to the test. In such a scenario, Trump could tell the prime minister: Before Iran, first end the war and return all the hostages. If you don't do this, you will get nothing - neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran. Therefore, if Netanyahu fails to convince Trump, and the American president insists on continuing the deal, he may in effect set a date for early elections in Israel.
Either way, the prime minister plans to stay in the U.S. over next weekend - during the next round of the hostages' release. Netanyahu's intention is evident from the fact that, in a referendum on filling his position in his absence that was brought to the government, the ministers were asked to confirm that Netanyahu would stay in the U.S. between February 2 and February 9. His place will be filled by Minister Yariv Levin, and the cabinet meetings will be chaired by Defense Minister Israel Katz.
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