The confusing messages sent from the prime minister indicate the pressures he is under. Netanyahu is trying to walk between the drops, or between the boulders - Trump, Smotrich, the families of the hostages and Israeli public opinion.
Hamas itself said that it would be ready to release the hostages as planned on Saturday, and threatened to delay the release as early as Monday so that the mediators would have enough time to get the deal back on track. The cards were stacked with Trump's announcement Monday night, in which he demanded that Hamas release "all the hostages" by Saturday noon, or "the gates of hell will open."
Although he ostensibly suggested this to the Israeli government and did not set a clear line of his own, he put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in trouble with the right-wing Messianic wing in the coalition, because he cannot be portrayed as less hawkish than Trump.
Bezalel Smotrich inside and Itamar Ben-Gvir outside the government seized the opportunity and demanded that Trump's statement be carried out verbatim, and adopted by the Israeli government. In other words, if all the hostages are not released - and not just all nine survivors who remain in phase I of the deal - Israel will enter forcefully and occupy the Gaza Strip. The right-wing position and the need to align with Trump caused Netanyahu to take two actions: instruct the IDF to prepare for a powerful and comprehensive operation in the Strip, as is indeed happening, and to issue a statement, which was accepted as a cabinet decision, according to which Hamas must release "our hostages" by Saturday.
The real situation on the ground is that if Israel launches a major operation in the Gaza Strip, at least some of the hostages will be harmed, senior security officials say. Therefore, it can be estimated that, by Friday, the crisis will be resolved through diplomatic means.
This could be reinterpreting Trump's words, "all of them," to mean the three hostages who are supposed to be released as planned on Saturday. After public pressure from the right, another statement was later issued in the name of a "senior official" who emphasized that it was "all the hostages, as Trump said." But not in the name of the prime minister, and certainly not in his voice. With the IDF's demonstrative stepping into activity inside the Strip, and the publication of the statement, Netanyahu also created a real threat to Hamas, that is, he flexed his muscles, while at the same time allowing the mediators to give Hamas a way to climb down from the tree.
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Netanyahu is very afraid of creating contradictions between him and the White House, and of Trump turning on him like he did after the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020. The prime minister is under pressure from the right and Washington, where Trump makes statements without thinking about all their consequences. Smotrich really means that the IDF should enter Gaza, and Trump is helping him and thus making things difficult for Netanyahu.
US President Donald Trump talks about Gaza, hostages alongside Jordan's King Abdullah
The real situation on the ground is that if Israel launches a major operation in the Gaza Strip at least some of the hostages will be killed, according to senior security officials. Government ministers also know this. And let us must remember: Hamas also wants to continue the deal and preserve its achievements.
Therefore, it can be estimated that by Friday, when the names of those hostages who will be freed next are supposed to be released, the crisis will be resolved through diplomatic means and the IDF will not have to realize the threat inherent in its increased presence on the outskirts of the Gaza Strip.