In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the CIA assessed that even if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed in the operation, he would likely be replaced by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, two sources briefed on the intelligence said.
The assessments, produced over the past two weeks, examined potential scenarios inside Iran following U.S. intervention and evaluated whether military action could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic — an objective that has become increasingly explicit in Washington.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is an elite military force tasked with protecting Iran’s clerical leadership.
The intelligence reports did not reach firm conclusions about any single outcome, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. The CIA declined to comment.
President Donald Trump has for weeks signaled that the United States would welcome regime change in Iran but has not detailed Washington’s thinking about who might lead the country.
In an early morning video address Saturday, Trump described Tehran as a “terrorist regime” and encouraged the Iranian people to take control of their government, saying U.S. strikes would help set the stage for an uprising.
The U.S. and Israeli assault followed weeks of internal debate within the U.S. government over whether to strike Iran, particularly after deadly protests erupted there in December.
In recent weeks, U.S. officials had sought to negotiate a nuclear agreement with Tehran in an effort to avoid military action.
During a briefing last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told senior congressional leaders known as the Gang of Eight that a U.S. operation was likely to proceed, though Trump could still change course, particularly if nuclear negotiations succeeded. Talks in Geneva failed to produce an agreement.
On Friday night, Rubio informed the Gang of Eight that the operation against Iran was likely to begin within hours but noted that Trump retained the authority to reverse the decision, according to two sources familiar with the matter.