An Israeli official familiar with current security assessments said Saturday there is substance to a U.S. intelligence report that Iran is considering escalating the regional conflict in an effort to pressure President Donald Trump, adding that Tehran’s worsening domestic situation may be providing another incentive for action.
According to the assessment, Iran may seek to force the United States back to negotiations because Tehran increasingly believes time is working against it. After the U.S. midterm elections in November, the official said, Iran may have little meaningful economic or political leverage left over Trump.
Gallery
(Photo: AP/Alex Brandon, Atta KENARE/AFP, REUTERS/Stringer, Lance Davis/United States Navy/Huntington Ingalls Industries)
The official said the likelihood is increasing that Iran, which so far has refrained from directly attacking Israel in the current phase of the confrontation, could do so. Another possibility is that Tehran would initially use one of its proxies as the “first tool” to wear down Israeli defenses and send a signal without immediately exposing Iran itself as the direct force behind the attack.
Creating broader regional instability, including pressure on oil and fuel prices, is also viewed in Israel as a possible way for Tehran to raise the cost of the confrontation for Washington.
The official pointed to timing as another concern, saying Jewish holiday periods have historically been viewed by Israel’s enemies as a favorable window for attacks. Recent Iranian strikes on Jordan, including Aqaba, were also seen as a signal that Israel could eventually be targeted.
At the same time, the renewed escalation in Lebanon following the IDF’s takeover of the strategic Ali Taher Ridge has increased concern that Hezbollah could intensify attacks on Israeli forces.
The Israeli assessment comes against the backdrop of a New York Times report that recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has grown more confident in its ability to strike targets across the Middle East and now appears determined to sustain the confrontation for months, at least through the U.S. midterm elections in November.
People who reviewed the intelligence reports and spoke with the Times said the Iranian regime, which they described as increasingly dominated by hard-line figures, is considering the possibility of a significant escalation.
The reports also suggest that after roughly six months of fighting, Iran has developed a “better understanding” of its military capabilities. That, according to the assessment, could make it more difficult to reach an agreement that fully ends the conflict.
Katz: Iranian attack would ‘free Israel from all constraints’
Against that backdrop, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Thursday that any Iranian attack on Israel would “free Israel from every existing constraint” in its operations against Iran.
Speaking at a Rosh Hashanah event at the Defense Ministry, Katz said the IDF would strike “all national military and civilian infrastructure” in Iran, including energy facilities, if Tehran attacked Israel.
Katz said there were “signs” of severe economic pressure on the Iranian regime, along with fears of internal unrest and regime collapse, factors he said “could push them toward desperate steps.”
He said the Iranian leadership “knows very well” why it has avoided attacking Israel, after two Israeli operations in which, according to Katz, Iran was hit hard, its nuclear program was destroyed, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed and key strategic capabilities were damaged.
Defense Minister Israel Katz
(Photo: Yariv Katz)
Katz added that Israel is “well prepared, defensively and offensively, for every possibility” and that the IDF is ready to carry out its mission.
An Israeli official said Israel does not want to be caught by surprise and that Katz’s warning was intended to “minimize the thoughts in the minds of our enemies.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a similarly stark message at a Rosh Hashanah event at the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv two days earlier.
“The Iranian regime is faltering. It is weaker than ever,” Netanyahu said. “It is fighting for its life, and I am convinced of our ability to remove this threat once and for all. That means bringing down this regime.”
“This is the main mission still ahead of us, but it is close,” he said. “It is not impossible. It is within reach.”
Netanyahu added: “They are not avoiding attacking us for no reason. They attack everyone, just not us. They know our strength, the force of our response and our determination.”
He concluded with a warning: “I say to our enemies: Don’t mess with us.”