Geopolitical conflicts and technological changes are emerging as leading sources of disruption for small businesses operating across borders, while tariffs remain a less widespread concern despite growing anxiety among goods sellers, according to a new international survey by financial technology company Payoneer.
The survey of 8,626 businesses in 20 countries found that 55% of respondents experienced significant operational disruptions during the previous six months, while 45% reported none.
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Geopolitical conflicts and technological shifts, including the adoption of artificial intelligence, were the most frequently cited causes of disruption, each affecting about 14% of respondents, according to Payoneer’s Global Business Sentiment Survey for the second quarter of 2026.
Foreign exchange volatility and changes in interest rates followed, adding pressure to financial planning and the margins of companies selling goods and services internationally.
Tariffs ranked fifth among the factors cited, affecting about 7% to 8% of businesses overall. But concern about tariffs was considerably higher among companies selling physical goods, particularly those dependent on manufacturing and suppliers in China and elsewhere in Asia.
The share of goods sellers citing tariffs as a concern increased from 11% to 18% over one month, according to the survey.
The findings come amid broader uncertainty over global supply chains, including instability affecting shipping routes in and around the Strait of Hormuz and intensifying U.S.-China competition over advanced semiconductors used for artificial intelligence.
Restrictions and competition surrounding advanced chips have pushed some technology companies to reconsider manufacturing and supply arrangements, while geopolitical tensions affecting major shipping routes can increase transportation costs and cause delays.
The level of disruption reported by businesses varied significantly by country.
Among respondents in the United States, 43% reported experiencing significant disruptions, one of the lower rates in the survey. The rate was 44% in the United Arab Emirates.
Businesses surveyed in several Asian markets reported substantially higher levels of disruption. Vietnam had the highest rate, at 74%, followed by China at 69%. South Korea recorded a rate of 68% and Japan 67%. Ukraine, which continues to contend with the effects of war, also recorded a disruption rate of 68%.
Businesses were also changing their operations in response to the uncertainty. Payoneer said between 44% and 48% of affected respondents had either made operational changes or were planning to do so.
Those measures included diversifying supplier networks, seeking suppliers in regions perceived as more stable, expanding customer bases and reconsidering hiring and workforce strategies.
“The global economy is undergoing a profound structural shift, and we're seeing geopolitical developments have a far greater impact than traditional tax and trade policies,” said Adam Cohen, who oversees global commerce, customer growth and business strategy at Payoneer.
Cohen said businesses responding to the changing environment were diversifying supply chains and manufacturing options and investing in financial and technology infrastructure.
The survey included Israel among the 20 countries examined. Payoneer did not provide Israel-specific figures in the findings released with the survey.
Most respondents were micro and small businesses with no more than 49 employees, along with freelancers and sole proprietors. That means the results primarily reflect the experiences and perceptions of smaller companies rather than large multinational corporations.
The survey also measures what respondents identified as sources of disruption and concern, rather than independently measuring the economic impact of geopolitical events, tariffs or technological changes on international trade.
Payoneer, which conducted the survey, provides payment and other financial services to companies and individuals conducting business across national borders.