Unusual trading activity worth an estimated $2 billion in futures markets drew scrutiny Monday after occurring minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump announced talks with Iran, a development that moved global markets.
A sharp spike in trading volume was recorded around 6:50 a.m. New York time in e-mini S&P 500 futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, totaling about $1.4 billion, according to CNBC. The surge stood out against typically quiet and low-liquidity premarket conditions.
A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. Futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery saw a sudden increase in trading volume of roughly $650 million during the same period.
About 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on his Truth Social platform that the United States and Iran had held talks and that he was delaying planned strikes on Iranian electricity and energy infrastructure.
Following the announcement, S&P 500 futures jumped more than 2.5% ahead of regular trading, while WTI crude futures fell nearly 6%.
The timing of the earlier trades raised questions among market participants, as there was no clear trigger at the moment they occurred.
Premarket futures trading is typically less liquid, making large transactions more noticeable. Analysts noted that a strategy involving buying equity futures while shorting oil at that time would have generated significant profits within minutes.
At the same time, analysts cautioned that algorithmic and macro-driven trading strategies can also produce rapid and large flows across asset classes without a single identifiable catalyst, particularly during thin trading hours.