Prediction market giant Kalshi was born from speculation over whether reality TV star and cosmetics entrepreneur Kylie Jenner was pregnant, according to one of the company’s co-founders.
Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi’s chief operating officer, told Bloomberg that the media frenzy surrounding rumors about Jenner’s pregnancy in early 2018 revealed a broader opportunity.
The moment stuck with Lopes Lara — not the gossip, but the idea that millions of people might be forming strong opinions on uncertain outcomes, with nowhere to put their conviction.
That insight led Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour, whom she met while studying at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to launch Kalshi in 2018.
Today, Kalshi is one of the world’s most prominent prediction-market platforms alongside rival Polymarket. The company, valued at an estimated $22 billion, has doubled in value since December and employs about 150 people. It now handles billions of dollars in wagers on political events, economic developments and a range of other outcomes.
While Mansour is typically the public face of the company, Lopes Lara oversees much of Kalshi’s day-to-day operations, including engineering, investor relations and hiring. At age 30, Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index estimates her net worth at $2.6 billion, exceeding that of Jenner herself.
Raised in Brazil, Lopes Lara studied ballet before pursuing business. She is currently planning her wedding, scheduled to take place in Iceland next year. Her daily routine starts at 5:45 a.m. with an hour-long workout before heading to Kalshi’s offices in New York’s Meatpacking District, often returning home around 10 p.m. or 11 p.m.
“My role in the company is to push for us to go for things, to go fast, take what we can and grow as much as we can,” she said.
As Kalshi’s influence has grown, so have questions about the platform’s responsibilities.
Critics argue prediction markets should not allow betting on issues such as trade agreements, military operations or even television ratings for sporting events because they could encourage insider trading and raise ethical concerns, particularly around wars and human tragedies.
One example involved speculation surrounding Iran. In February, after repeated threats by U.S. President Donald Trump, users began betting on whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be removed from power. Khamenei was later killed in the first wave of strikes on Feb. 28, and Kalshi voided the market because the company officially prohibits wagers on deaths.
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US President Donald Trump, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
(Photo: CHARLY TRIBALLEAU and ATTA KENARE / AFP)
Critics nonetheless argued that such markets could incentivize the use of classified or insider information. “It’s always very stressful to read these things,” Lopes Lara said of the criticism directed at Kalshi and Polymarket. “That’s where we really failed. We didn’t fail on market design, we didn’t fail on the rules. We failed in making it crystal clear to people.”
Kalshi later clarified its policies and refunded roughly $2.2 million wagered on the Khamenei market.
The company has also faced regulatory battles.
In 2023, Kalshi sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after the regulator blocked the company from offering contracts on congressional election outcomes. A court ruled in Kalshi’s favor in time for the November 2024 elections.
At the same time, 19 U.S. states have challenged the company over sports-related markets, and Arizona has filed criminal charges against Kalshi.
“If it needs to go to the Supreme Court, it can go to the Supreme Court,” Lopes Lara said in March. “We’re very, very confident that we’re correct and there’s no problem with that. And we’re no stranger to lawsuits either.”
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Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner
(Photo: John Shearer/98th Oscars/Getty Images The Academy via Getty Images)
In an effort to improve its image, Kalshi signed a sponsorship deal with Madison Square Garden and hired actor Timothée Chalamet for an advertising campaign. The partnership represented something of a full circle, as Chalamet is Jenner’s current partner.
Kalshi also maintains ties to other prominent figures. Donald Trump Jr. and rapper Jay-Z both serve as advisers, though Lopes Lara said Trump’s son is not involved in regulatory discussions. Jay-Z became involved through his venture capital firm, MarcyPen.
The company’s next goal is international expansion, though efforts have met resistance. Brazil recently blocked access to prediction platforms over concerns they could facilitate illegal sports gambling.
Still, Lopes Lara said she believes attitudes will change. “As prediction markets become more mainstream and people accept them and understand them, we’re going to see a lot more of those use cases,” she said.