A group of accounts on the Polymarket platform placed highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars, according to a report by The Guardian.
The bets were made despite sharply escalating rhetoric from President Donald Trump in the hours before the two-week ceasefire was announced Tuesday, with few signals suggesting an agreement was imminent. Earlier that day, Trump warned on social media that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not meet his demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by a set deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern time.
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Ali Khamenei and Donald Trump; threats unfulfilled, bet pays off
(Photo: Anna Moneymaker/GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP)
One bet, placed around 10 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, staked about $72,000 on the outcome and later netted a profit of $200,000. Another account, created on April 6 and trading on the same event, showed profits of $125,500.
A separate account, created just 12 minutes before Trump’s post, placed “yes” bets totaling $31,000 and is estimated to have earned $48,500. The higher price for “yes” bets at the time may have reflected last-minute efforts by Pakistan’s government to persuade Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.
It is also possible the users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given a pattern in his second term of issuing strong threats and then retreating — a phenomenon critics have dubbed “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out).
While some users secured large profits, others are still awaiting payouts after Polymarket flagged the U.S.-Iran ceasefire as “disputed,” citing continued Iranian restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing missile strikes in the region. The issue could take up to 48 hours to resolve.
Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new accounts. Polymarket uses proxy smart wallets, meaning a single user can operate multiple accounts. Only the platform holds the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to The Guardian’s request for comment.
The pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets on geopolitical events has become increasingly common. Similar accounts placed large bets hours before the reported capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars. Others have repeatedly profited from precisely timed wagers on military actions involving Iran.
Such activity has repeatedly raised questions among the public and U.S. lawmakers about whether some traders are using insider information to profit on prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have introduced legislation to expand the definition of insider trading to include such markets.