The massive wildfire in the Jerusalem Hills has scorched roughly 20 square kilometers (about 20,000 dunams) of open land, according to initial estimates from Israel’s Fire and Rescue Authority. To put that in perspective, the area burned is about 80% of the size of the damage caused by the 2010 Mount Carmel Disaster — the worst and deadliest wildfire in Israel’s history.
The blaze has destroyed around 13 square kilometers of forest, inflicting severe damage on Canada Park, a popular recreational area. As the flames spread, several nearby communities were evacuated, and major sections of Highway 1 — the main road linking Jerusalem and Tel Aviv — as well as Highway 3, were closed to traffic.
About 100 firefighting teams battled the fire for hours under difficult conditions, working to bring the flames under control. Twenty-one firefighters suffered injuries from smoke inhalation. At the time of writing the full extent of the damage to both people and the environment remains unclear.
From spark to wildfire
As the fire spread, rumors and conspiracy theories about its origins also began circulating across the country. While investigations into the possibility of arson were launched, Israel’s Fire and Rescue Authority estimated that the initial cause of the fire was the negligence of hikers. There is still much we do not know about the causes of the fire, but there are also many things we do know, and very clearly.
For one, we know that fire ignition in open areas is a common phenomenon in modern-day Israel. According to a study led by Deputy Fire Commissioner Dr. Shay Levy, currently head of the Fire Research Branch Operations Division at Israel's National Fire and Rescue Authority, "every year, about 40,000 fires break out in open areas in Israel, almost all caused by human negligence or deliberate actions. Around 1,000 fires occur annually in forests and woodlands."
In most cases, the source of the fire is not formally investigated and therefore remains unknown. However, where investigations are conducted, common causes include the spread of fire from burning agricultural waste, illegal garbage burning, poorly extinguished campfires or barbecues left behind by hikers, or the re-ignition of old burn sites. Live-fire military training exercises are also a frequent source of fires and repeated flare-ups near training grounds. Additionally, many fires are suspected to have been deliberately set. Most of these incidents don't make headlines because they are extinguished quickly, without escalating into major disasters.
Compounding this problem, hot and dry climatic conditions make vegetation highly flammable - so much so that a single cigarette butt or overheated trash can ignite a blaze. When dry vegetation is abundant and strong winds are blowing, fires can spread with frightening speed. Hot, dry winds act like a giant hairdryer, drying out the dead plants and debris while simultaneously fanning the flames, pushing the fire, embers, and sometimes even entire burning branches forward.
Furthermore, the wind supplies oxygen to the flames, fueling the fire like a giant fan over a backyard barbecue. As Levy told Globes newspaper: "What was exceptional about this fire was the speed at which it spread. I measured 2 kilometers per hour, which is a lot. In most fires, the behavior is far less aggressive." In this case, the winds not only pushed the firefront at a pace that made it extremely difficult to contain, but also caused new fires to erupt wherever burning branches and embers landed.
This extreme weather did not appear out of nowhere. It followed an exceptionally dry winter, during which the Jerusalem Hills received only about half of their average seasonal rainfall. March was unusually hot and, just about a week before the blaze, the region experienced a severe heat wave and smaller fires in a nearby area. Unfortunately, the combination of drought conditions and hot, dry desert winds blowing in from the deserts east of Israel proved to be a deadly recipe.
Fast fires, slow recovery
The latest wildfire in the Jerusalem Hills has been one of the most severe in recent memory, joining a growing list of forest fires in northern Israel, many of which have been sparked by the ongoing war. In fact, a 2017 nation-scale study on tree mortality dynamics, led by Dr. Tamir Klein from the Weizmann Institute of Science, found that the majority of tree mortality events since the founding of the State of Israel are directly related to fires, with the majority of most fires occurring against a background of drought years. Fires impact not only plants but also animals and the entire ecosystem. Yet wildfires are not new to this region and in many cases nature is able to recover. Fires are even a natural part of many ecological cycles.
Additionally, older planted forests - such as those that burned in the Jerusalem Hills - often have low tree diversity, sometimes consisting of only a single species, such as the Jerusalem pine. Modern reforestation efforts aim to plant a wide variety of tree species, which enhances the forest’s overall biodiversity and ecological function, Klein explained in an interview with the Davidson Institute website.
Unfortunately, recovery is a slow and lengthy process, and it is happening as there are more frequent and intense fires. Repeated and intense fires in the same areas make it harder for ecosystems to recover and pose a threat to Israel’s natural environment. According to the 2022 State of Nature Report by The Israel National Ecosystem Assessment Program, HAMAARAG, between 2015 and 2021 alone — even before the current war — about 500 square kilometers, or 15% of natural and forested areas in Israel’s Mediterranean region, burned at least once.
This trend is, of course, part of a larger global pattern, occurring against the backdrop of climate change and the shortening of the winter season in Israel. However, the report also attributes the rise in fires to increased human activity in open areas and a rise in vegetation density, which serves as fuel for fires. Klein’s research highlights that, in recent decades, not only have the frequency and intensity of fires increased, but tree mortality from other causes such as droughts and pests has also accelerated.
A world under fire
The acceleration of global warming has led to a doubling of extreme wildfires around the world. According to NASA, over the 21 years that the agency has been monitoring global fire patterns, there has been a clear increase in the frequency, intensity and size of extreme fires. The sharpest rises have been recorded in the coniferous forests of the western United States and in the boreal forests of Russia and North America. Australia, too, has suffered devastating fire seasons in recent years.
Beyond the immediate threats to human life and property, and the damage to ecosystems, wildfires contribute heavily to air pollution by releasing harmful airborne particulate matter. They also emit large quantities of greenhouse gases, feeding into the very climate change that makes extreme fires more likely.
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However, a significant portion of fires worldwide are intentionally set, for example, to burn agricultural waste or to clear forests. A surprising 2017 study found that, despite global warming, the total area burned globally has actually been declining significantly. This is because many traditional cultures have historically used fire to manage savanna and grassland areas, preventing the spread of woody shrubs. These fires were very common but have been decreasing as nomadic lifestyles end and agriculture expands in these regions.
However, a significant portion of wildfires around the world are intentionally set, often to burn agricultural waste or clear forests. Surprisingly, a 2017 study found that despite global warming, the total area burned globally has actually been decreasing significantly. This is because many traditional cultures have historically used fire to manage savanna and grassland areas to prevent the spread of woody shrubs. These controlled burns were once very common but have gradually declined with the fading of nomadic lifestyles and the expansion of agriculture in many regions, leading to a drop in overall burned area, even as extreme fires in certain regions have become more severe.
Climate change — and most wildfires around the world — are largely the result of human activity, whether through negligence or deliberate action. Despite the worrying trends and the devastation we are witnessing, the power to act remains in our hands. We know where and when fires are most likely to occur, and we have the knowledge and technology and capacity to prevent, monitor, detect and respond to them more effectively than ever before. We also have the tools to rehabilitate damaged ecosystems and to mitigate the broader climate crisis.
The question remains: will we act in time to prevent the next disaster?