Israel’s military began laying the groundwork for a wide-scale strike on Iran last year, working in secret to identify targets, gather intelligence, and coordinate with the air force in anticipation of a potential full-scale conflict, according to Israeli intelligence officials.
The behind-the-scenes effort, led by Military Intelligence (Aman), began in late October during Israel’s war with Hezbollah. Senior intelligence officials said they understood at the time that “things were becoming practical,” prompting the start of a combat planning process.
(Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)
“Once we realized we were heading toward a real scenario, we began formulating a comprehensive intelligence picture and building a target bank,” one official said.
The officials described the operation as unprecedented in scale, particularly because Israel’s existing Iran strategy had been based largely on covert operations, such as Mossad missions against nuclear sites. “There was no existing plan for a kinetic war like the one unfolding now,” one said. “That was the challenge.”
They compared air superiority to “the keys to the car” in a war scenario. “We understood it would be the determining factor,” said one official, adding that operational planning began in earnest in late November.
Over several weeks, teams from Aman and the air force locked themselves in a strategic planning session for 10 hours each day. They aimed to identify and strike Iran’s “centers of gravity,” which include surface-to-surface missile systems, drone infrastructure, the nuclear project, command and control structures, economic and industrial facilities, and leadership targets.
The initial intelligence and planning work involved around 120 personnel from Military Intelligence’s Unit 8200 and the air force. By January, however, the effort had stalled. “We thought we’d find one breakthrough that would open everything up, but it didn’t happen,” an official said.
The teams then restructured into smaller units to tackle specific problems—from targeting missile launchers and command centers to tracking truck drivers moving mobile launchers. A breakthrough came in February, and the target bank expanded significantly.
(Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)
“Each day showed more progress than the one before it,” an official said. “Eventually, operational readiness met a strategic opportunity.”
Israeli officials said they felt urgency in light of intelligence indicating Iran could double its missile arsenal by the end of 2025 and that Tehran was nearing nuclear breakout capability. They also cited increased activity by Iran’s Quds Force, which supports proxy groups including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq, Syria and the West Bank.
“This convergence of threats—the nuclear program, missile production, and Quds Force plots—led to the decision to act,” one official said.
Officials estimate that about 40% of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile arsenal has been neutralized in the strikes so far, primarily by destroying launchers. “Without launchers, the missiles can’t be fired,” a source said.
The Israeli military now has air superiority over parts of Iran, allowing it to operate more freely in Iranian airspace. “It’s a real war zone over there,” one official said. “We hope to finish this phase soon.”
As for Iran’s nuclear program, Israeli officials said they are targeting three key elements: scientists, enrichment facilities, and above-ground infrastructure, including offices and command centers. The Fordow enrichment site is among the identified targets.
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In the command and control sphere, officials said Israel has inflicted triple the expected damage. “We didn’t think every accessible target would also be an air force operational opportunity, but it was,” one said.
Despite the progress, officials warned that many challenges remain. “We still have more targets in the bank and expect about a week more of operations—though everything depends on how events unfold,” a source said.
“Our priority remains ensuring pilots return safely,” the official added. “Every day we’re chasing more launchers and bases. We are dismantling Iran’s offensive capabilities one by one. But the Iranian axis remains active, with operatives in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, and the West Bank. Intelligence has its limits.”