Despite shifting some intelligence resources toward Lebanon and carrying out additional strikes there, the strategic focus remains on attacks in Iran, while activity in Lebanon is largely defensive and aimed at pressuring the Lebanese government to dismantle Hezbollah’s capabilities.
The approach is not expected to change even after Hezbollah terrorists fired rockets toward central Israel.
IDF strikes in Lebanon
(Video: IDF)
The Shiite terrorist organization appears to view the war as a decisive battle, though it is uncertain it will prevail. Hezbollah terrorists are seeking to inflict losses in order to preserve their political standing in Lebanon.
The defensive effort in Lebanon includes several offensive components.
These include brigade-level raids south of the Litani River designed to push Hezbollah’s Radwan terrorist force back to the north. The Radwan unit is considered Hezbollah’s elite formation tasked with planning cross-border attacks.
The campaign also includes continued strikes on Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure, mainly in Beirut’s Dahieh district and in northern areas of the Bekaa Valley.
In addition, rapid strikes are being carried out on “flash targets” that emerge from intelligence gathering south and north of the Litani River. These targets are closed within minutes using drones, helicopters, fighter jets or artillery.
IDF units inside Lebanon are stabilizing and increasing in size, approaching the scale of three divisions. At the same time, preparations are underway for a rapid and intense ground maneuver north of the Litani if necessary.
Before the campaign began, assessments were that Hezbollah terrorists and the Houthis in Yemen would join the war.
So far, more than 350 Hezbollah terrorists have been killed in Lebanon. The Houthis have not joined the fighting against Israel, and the reason remains unclear. If they do join, the expectation is that Israel will respond directly rather than relying on the United States.
Meanwhile, strikes in Iran remain the main operational priority.
Iran’s original plan was to launch dozens of missiles a day toward Israel. The number was significantly reduced after the first two days of fighting.
The IDF struck missile launch sites
(Video: IDF)
Current targets in Iran include regime-related sites and military production and industrial facilities.
The nuclear issue is not the primary focus at this stage. The question of enriched uranium is expected to be addressed only after the war ends, or potentially through a special U.S. operation.
The IDF Operations Directorate, led by Maj. Gen. Itzik Cohen, is coordinating closely with the United States in daily operational work.
The pace of operations is intense, with some pilots flying three sorties a day and aircraft carrying out as many as four missions daily.
Rather than focusing only on destroying missiles themselves, the effort has prioritized sealing the underground shelters where they are stored.
During bad weather, Iranian forces can bring in heavy machinery to reopen those underground shelters and remove the missiles. As a result, constant aerial monitoring by drones and fighter jets is required to maintain the operational advantage. When weather conditions improve, strikes are carried out.
The effort also targets the entire chain involved in missile launches, from the cranes used to place missiles on launchers to the teams preparing the launches.
Behind the scenes, intelligence agencies — together with the CIA — are working to encourage significant public protest against the Iranian regime.
Initial planning envisioned the war beginning around June, but the timeline was moved forward.
Efforts to encourage internal unrest in Iran are continuing and showing some progress, though they have not yet reached a decisive stage.
Two conditions would likely be required to bring down the regime: large-scale protests in the streets and serious cracks within the governing system.
There are signs of internal strain, including indications of fragmentation within units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military and internal security forces. However, conditions for a full revolutionary moment have not yet emerged.