Israel now faces its most tangible opportunity to end the war in Gaza, nearly two years after Hamas’s invasion. The window, however, could be lost. Many factors could derail negotiations, particularly Hamas’s reluctance to give up its key bargaining chips: the hostages. Cautious pessimism is always wise in the Middle East, yet even a measure of it cannot obscure the opening that may finally bring an end to the nightmare.
Any attempt to portray the past weeks as a meticulously planned and executed strategy is pure charlatanry. Netanyahu did not plan for the assassination attempt in Qatar to fail or to provoke U.S. anger. Arab states pushing Trump’s plan were caught off guard by a final draft far more pro-Israel than expected. The U.S. announcement on Saturday evening calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, following partial Hamas agreement, was “not fully coordinated” with Jerusalem, to put it mildly. One Israeli official said, “If coordination means they just told us what would happen, then yes, it’s very coordinated.” Another official bluntly said, “Are you kidding?”
What has emerged is a meeting of wills—and, above all, one overriding desire. As reported here over two weeks ago, this is a moment for a breakthrough. Hamas feels Israel’s grip on Gaza, just before the push toward the city, and regional states are fed up. Israel is more isolated than ever, internally divided and its military—and most political leadership, excluding hardliners—are wary of a full-scale Gaza occupation. Israel understood that the U.S. would not tolerate a prolonged war, especially not into 2026.
The Qatar assassination attempt occurred amid renewed discussions on Trump’s proposal, and regional unity afterward highlighted Israel’s lack of options. Netanyahu found himself at the White House, handed a phone by President Trump with a demand for an apology—a delicate ask for someone who has never acknowledged responsibility for the October 7 attacks. Following this, the White House released images and announced a type of security pact with Doha. Israel, in its current position, could not refuse or even hedge.
The overriding desire is Trump’s. Over the weekend, Israelis and Palestinians—from Gaza to Jerusalem, Ramallah and Tel Aviv—found themselves united in gratitude toward America. Social media reflected the sentiment: Muslims, Jews and Christians alike hoping the plan would succeed.
Significant gaps remain between Hamas’s statements and Trump’s plan, enough to potentially block an agreement. Yet Trump believes his will can bridge these gaps. This is not mere optimism; it reflects his determination. According to reports, Trump warned Netanyahu he would be left alone if he rejected the plan, and threatened Hamas with unleashed fury in Gaza.
The president’s approach has reframed expectations, presenting ambitious objectives: immediate release of all hostages within 72 hours, followed by a symbolic ceasefire, and a second phase envisioning the “day after” in Gaza, with Israel gradually withdrawing and a new Palestinian authority assuming control.
For far-right ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir, the deal is a nightmare. For most Israelis, it is a wake-up call from the worst of the conflict. The release of hostages, if realized, would be the most important achievement of the war, according to every survey. The White House understands that public legitimacy for the war would dissipate once hostages are returned—both living and deceased.
The first phase, if implemented, offers Israel a significant achievement: the IDF would still be in Gaza’s depths, and the hostages would be home. Hamas, meanwhile, has already received a partial de-escalation before releasing a single hostage and committed to ending the war, retaining governance over Gaza with Palestinian oversight. While technocrats like Tony Blair and the “Peace Council” are involved, this does not diminish the reality that Hamas retains hope for reconstruction and behind-the-scenes management, with both Qatar and now Turkey—trusted intermediaries—playing key roles.
The coming days will be decisive and full of twists. For those seeking hostage returns and an end to the war, sustained, focused and unrelenting American pressure will be essential to securing a deal.
First published: 23:15, 10.04.25