Rabbi Dov Landau’s announcement, in which the spiritual leader of Degel HaTorah said the party no longer has confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and is willing to support dissolving the Knesset, has raised coalition tensions to a new high. The announcement creates a broad political window of opportunity, but also intensifies discussions over possible election dates.
Netanyahu’s circle is trying to delay the process as much as possible and gather more military and diplomatic achievements that could help him in elections. Netanyahu has made clear more than once to his partners that he wants to complete the government’s term, but the draft law keeps shaking the coalition and raising the familiar questions. Usually, it is the coalition that dissolves itself, and Netanyahu’s associates say they believe they will be able to drag this out a little longer.
The key to early elections lies with Shas. If Shas joins Degel HaTorah, it would accelerate the move toward early elections. But if it does not, the coalition will be able to delay it somewhat. As a result, Netanyahu is expected to put all his weight behind efforts to pressure Shas chairman Aryeh Deri.
In unofficial discussions already held, two possible dates were raised in addition to the original date: Sept. 1 and Sept. 15, both dates Shas is interested in. Deri believes that because of the month of Elul and the Selichot prayers, more Shas voters would turn out to vote and the party’s electoral potential would be higher.
But both Likud and Religious Zionism believe this would be a mistake and are urging restraint. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who recently passed the final state budget of the current term, is still facing the threat of the electoral threshold and is trying to push the election to Oct. 27.
In the background, everyone understands that the possibility of a military strike still exists, which would naturally serve Netanyahu, who would not be able to dissolve the Knesset during June. Netanyahu will make major efforts on this issue in order to come to elections with such an achievement and control an agenda that is convenient for him.
As for mid-September, it is a less convenient date for some of the coalition partners, as they have told Netanyahu, because in that case the election campaign would spill into the High Holidays and make it harder to count double envelopes, handle appeals and conduct additional checks, which would be delayed until after the holidays. Some factions believe such a situation could pose a risk to election integrity, which is why Likud currently opposes it as well.
Either way, and as usually happens, Netanyahu will move to dissolve the Knesset only after the coalition partners agree on an election date.