With the Iran war now locked in a costly standoff and crises from Ukraine to Gaza still unresolved, President Donald Trump’s ambitious foreign policy agenda appears increasingly stuck as he heads toward November’s midterm elections.
The setbacks are striking for a president who returned to office last year promising to be a “peacemaker” and made resolving international conflicts a centerpiece of his second-term agenda.
Trump has grown increasingly impatient with reporters’ questions and even with U.S. allies. This week, he lashed out at journalists pressing him on foreign policy and renewed a threat to bomb Oman, a U.S. ally that has been negotiating with Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Labor Day, which falls on September 7 this year, traditionally marks the point when U.S. election campaigns move into high gear. Republicans now face the prospect that unresolved conflicts abroad, combined with their economic fallout at home, could threaten the party’s control of Congress.
Iran stalemate takes political toll
Trump called off talks with Tehran after weeks of pushing for a diplomatic solution and announced Wednesday a new campaign of “economic warfare” against the Islamic Republic, an apparent acknowledgment that months of military attacks have failed to force the concessions Washington wants.
As inflation persists and the Iran war drives gasoline prices higher, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to another low. Just 33% of Americans approved of his performance in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Other peace efforts have also stalled. On Monday, Trump’s negotiator and son-in-law Jared Kushner left talks on advancing a Gaza peace agreement without a breakthrough. An expected visit to Kyiv by Kushner and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, aimed at reviving long-stalled negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, has yet to take place.
Trump’s negotiator and son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff
(Photo: Alexander KAZAKOV / POOL / AFP)
After a string of early foreign policy achievements, including a Gaza ceasefire and the capture of Venezuela’s leader, Trump’s record has become increasingly defined by diplomatic efforts that have failed to produce lasting settlements.
“Trump has successfully challenged and disrupted the comfortable foreign policy consensus in Washington, but has not translated that disruption into a strategy with deliverables for Americans,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
Iran war tests Trump at home
The conflict with Iran has weighed “intensely” on the president, and there is no consensus inside the White House on how to resolve it, according to one Trump ally who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The pressure could increase if investors conclude the war will drag on, driving up U.S. borrowing costs and further constraining Trump’s domestic agenda. Trump has argued that the economic costs are worth bearing to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, despite Tehran’s denials that it seeks one.
Strait of Hormuz
(Photo: REUTERS/Stringer)
“President Trump has successfully made America respected again, and the results speak for themselves – nine wars have ended, hostages have been freed from Gaza, trade deals are fairer, and now, Iran will be prevented from ever possessing a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.
A senior Trump administration official said U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade had crippled Iran’s economy and left it “completely broke,” adding: “There are many levers the president can crank harder in the weeks ahead.”
An unorthodox style with mixed results
Some experts give Trump credit for a willingness to confront disputes they believe previous presidents were unable or unwilling to tackle.
“The president wants a more stable world and that means attempting to resolve disputes, whether hot like Ukraine or cold like trade and overcapacity,” said Nick Snyder, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. He also pointed to Trump’s efforts to settle conflicts between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo and between Thailand and Cambodia.
Trump has upended traditional diplomatic norms, relying heavily on America’s economic and military power, including against U.S. allies. But that unorthodox approach has produced mixed results.
He brought the parties together in an effort to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the longest war in Europe since World War II remains far from over. The latest Russian airstrikes killed 16 people in Kyiv on Thursday.
In Gaza, mediators fear intensifying Israeli strikes are undermining efforts to end the conflict, while both Israel and Hamas continue to resist conditions needed to advance a peace plan Trump forged last October. In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes killed 11 people on Sunday even as a U.S.-mediated peace framework between Israel and Lebanon remains in effect.
IDF forces in Gaza
(Photo: IDF)
One notable success came in Venezuela, where the U.S. military captured President Nicolas Maduro without U.S. casualties. Analysts say that operation helped convince Trump that joining Israel in attacking Iran could also proceed smoothly.
That calculation, they argue, proved mistaken. Trump has relied heavily on coercive pressure, but Iran’s leaders have little incentive to back down or reopen the Strait of Hormuz even as the country’s economy weakens.
“He is obsessed with applying coercion, and sometimes flattery, to bend others to his will, but oblivious to their strategic goals and domestic politics. As a result, he keeps flailing and failing,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Meanwhile, the political clock is ticking. Trump’s Republican Party faces elections that could cost it control of one or both chambers of Congress and sharply limit his ability to advance his agenda during the final two years of his presidency.
Analysts say Trump’s reliance on coercive pressure can bring adversaries to the negotiating table but often fails to produce durable settlements, a pattern that may encourage rivals to simply wait him out.
“U.S. adversaries understand that his political clock is shorter than theirs, and that while the United States can apply enormous coercive pressure, it may eventually lose patience,” Aydintasbas said.
“Putin, Xi and Iran may therefore want to wait out Washington. After November, the incentive to wait out Trump will become even more pronounced.”