This is probably one of the rare moments in history when the IDF launches a wide ground operation with many thousands of our soldiers inside enemy territory even as most of the public and much of the senior military leadership understand it will not change the course of the campaign.
Even a second takeover of Gaza City will not make Hamas wave a white flag, and it certainly will not decisively defeat the organization. The IDF has previously taken control of Gaza City, Hamas’ seat of power. That took place at the end of October 2023 when the 162nd and 36th divisions carried out large-scale operations.
Those divisions remained in the city for months, roughly until January 2024, after which they withdrew to Khan Younis and later to Rafah. It’s all been done before — and yet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his people promise that this time it will be different. Why? Because they said so.
The government that imposed Operation Gideon’s Chariots II on the military (and will likely impose its upcoming sequels) is banking on the public’s short memory and on a universal hope: one more operation and it will be over, a few more weeks of fighting and Hamas will surrender and we will achieve the absolute victory Netanyahu promised for so many months.
Such a victory will not be achieved without a political plan, without a governing alternative to Hamas. Netanyahu and his supporters sanctify war as an end rather than treating it as a means. The public must understand that as long as the government refuses to discuss a realistic political alternative in Gaza, Israel will continue to flounder in the Strip indefinitely, certainly through the coming year.
Perhaps that is even the aim — to head into elections a year and a month from now while the war still rages, and then use the ongoing fighting to change the electoral system or postpone the vote. What, then, can this operation actually achieve?
First, it can provide a military decision against Hamas brigades and inflict damage on terrorists and infrastructure. Second, such an action might create pressure within Hamas’s leadership to resume negotiations over the hostages — negotiations that stalled after the Israeli strike in Qatar.
Yet we must face the truth: it’s already doubtful whether Hamas’ Gaza City Brigade functions as a brigade in any conventional sense. Hamas long ago shifted to operating in the mode that suits it best: a guerrilla organization. It is reasonable to assume that many of the terrorists from the Gaza brigade fled south, to areas where the IDF is not present.
We will not see combat on the scale of the early months of the war. Instead, we should expect targeted actions — strikes from tunnels or semi-ruined homes followed by immediate withdrawal into hiding. At this stage, the terror organization has given up direct, conventional confrontation; its goal now is to harass IDF forces and survive.
What about the hostages? As IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has tried to argue in comments leaked to the media day and night, the price of this operation is expected to be high: the danger to the hostages’ lives will increase and some may be harmed.
At the same time, the IDF will suffer casualties, and of course, innocent Palestinian civilians will be killed. Soldier fatigue will reach new highs, international criticism of Israel will intensify and isolation on the world stage will deepen.
Another Gazan neighborhood will be destroyed, homes and tunnels will be razed, yet the reality in which Hamas survives and the war grinds on is unlikely to change. The U.S. administration appears, for now, to continue backing Israel. President Donald Trump and others seem to give Israel a green light to operate in Gaza despite international criticism.
The question is for how long. When Netanyahu visits Washington in about two weeks, will the operation still be in full swing, with great risk to the hostages’ lives and the prospect of massive civilian casualties? Netanyahu’s team seems to have sold Trump and his advisers on a quick, sharp operation that will supposedly deliver the longed-for victory.
But it must be understood that this campaign could last for months, and still not all terror infrastructures will be dismantled and certainly not all terrorists eliminated. If so, it is far from certain that Trump’s stance will remain so indulgent and supportive of Israel.