Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction and betting platforms, said it removed a betting market that allowed users to wager on when the U.S. military would rescue a missing American pilot in Iran after his aircraft crashed there.
The move followed criticism from U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, a Democrat from Massachusetts, who objected to the availability of such bets.
Polymarket said the market did not meet its standards for integrity and that it is investigating how it was approved despite internal safeguards meant to prevent such cases.
In recent months, Polymarket has become one of the most prominent and controversial online platforms amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Traditionally used to predict election outcomes or sports results, the platform has seen a surge in activity tied to developments involving Iran.
Users have invested large sums in prediction markets related to the timing and scope of potential U.S. and Israeli military action, as well as the fate of senior Iranian officials. For some, the platform has functioned as a form of open-source intelligence, with financial activity reflecting public expectations about possible escalation.
The platform’s rise has drawn criticism over the ethical implications of betting on matters involving human lives, with the case involving the missing pilot seen as an extreme example.
U.S. security officials have also expressed concern that such markets could be exploited by hostile actors for insider trading, creating incentives to leak sensitive information or influence events for financial gain.
The controversy has fueled debate over whether prediction platforms are evolving beyond financial tools into factors that could indirectly affect national security considerations.