The IDF has destroyed about 70% of Iran’s missile launchers since the start of the war, significantly reducing the scale of missile barrages fired toward Israel, according to a security official who said Sunday the campaign — now 16 days into the conflict — is progressing “beyond expectations.” One measurable indicator, the official said, is the number of missiles launched in each barrage, which numbered dozens on the first day of the war but has since declined.
Despite internet restrictions inside Iran that make it difficult for the public abroad to understand developments in the country, the intelligence community believes it has a picture close to the reality on the ground, the official said.
IDF strikes Iranian regime headquarters in Hamedan area
(Video: IDF)
According to the official, Iran’s leadership was surprised by the scale of the offensive despite preparing for war, and senior figures remain in hiding. Their absence has complicated decision-making and the transfer of orders to forces on the ground.
The official said there are early signs of declining motivation among Iranian commanders, including fear of leaving hiding places to fight, though he cautioned that these remain only early indications of possible desertions among members of the country’s security forces.
Security officials estimate that about 5,000 members of Iran’s regime forces have been killed so far in the war, while U.S. officials believe the number may be higher.
“A large part of the chaos stems from the death of leader Ali Khamenei,” the official said. “In Iran, the leader is everything, and now he is gone.”
The role of his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who was appointed in his place, remains unclear, the official added.
Iranian forces are currently hiding in mountainous areas and attempting to coordinate missile launches between their commands, but those efforts have not fully materialized, the official said. Instead, Iran has fired multiple smaller barrages. Israeli officials are examining whether the smaller attacks reflect operational difficulties or a deliberate strategy of attrition.
According to the security establishment, the war has unfolded in three main phases.
The first phase was the opening strike, which included a series of targeted killings of about 50 senior regime figures, including military officials, nuclear personnel and Khamenei, who had been considered one of the most heavily protected figures in the Middle East.
The second phase focuses on what the IDF describes as “enablers of action,” including achieving air superiority and reducing the threat posed by Iran’s missile systems.
Although the IDF announced early in the war that it had achieved air superiority, Iranian forces still possess anti-aircraft capabilities. Over the past two weeks, the air force has struck about 100 air defense units — weapons capable of threatening aircraft — and about 120 detection components, including radar systems used to track aircraft.
IAF eliminated drone unit soldiers as they fled a storage and launch site that was struck
(Video: IDF)
The third phase of the campaign is described by officials as removing threats and preventing Iran from rebuilding its military capabilities.
The IDF has focused heavily on damaging Iran’s defense industries, which rely largely on domestic production. According to the security official, significant damage has been inflicted on facilities that support the country’s military industry, particularly in major cities, and missile production has halted during the war.
“They are firing what they already have,” the official said. “Damage to military infrastructure is an insurance policy for the coming years.”
Among the targets struck were about 2,200 facilities belonging to the regime’s internal security organization and the Basij militia, the official said, in an effort to weaken the regime both during the war and in the future.
Many targets are identified in real time, the official added, noting that aircraft can receive updated targets while already in the air. In some cases, Iranian forces have moved operations to alternative headquarters after their original facilities were destroyed, and those sites have also been struck.
One of the remaining uncertainties in the campaign concerns Iran’s nuclear program, which had been at the center of Operation Rising Lion in June but has been mentioned less frequently during the current phase of the war.
The official said dozens of nuclear-related targets have been struck in recent weeks, including laboratories at universities that were used for nuclear-related work.
Regarding hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium believed to remain in Iran, the official said only that locating the material is one of the security establishment’s ongoing missions.
On the northern front, the IDF is expected to deepen its control in southern Lebanon in the coming week. Reserve forces have been mobilized and additional troops from the Golani, Nahal and Paratroopers brigades have been deployed to reinforce Northern Command.
IDF operation in southern Lebanon
(Video: IDF)
The operation does not currently involve a large maneuver toward the Litani River, officials said, but it does include ground maneuvering.
Before Operation Northern Arrows in September 2024, Hezbollah was believed to possess about 150,000 rockets, the official said. The number is now estimated at about 15,000.
About 450 Hezbollah members have been killed during the war, including about 120 members of the Radwan force, the group’s elite unit operating in villages just behind the border area.
According to the official, Hezbollah views the current conflict as a fight for its survival, as deeper damage to Iran — its main patron and source of funding — would also weaken the terror group.
“Hezbollah is no longer a strategic threat to Israel,” the official said.
As part of efforts to disrupt the axis between Tehran and Beirut, the IDF has focused on Iran’s Quds Force, which coordinates communication, planning and operations among Iran’s regional partners.
During the war, the head of the Quds Force’s Lebanon branch was killed in Tehran. Several days later, operatives linked to the unit were killed in a strike on a hotel in Beirut.
The air force has also struck 17 Quds Force transport aircraft in Iran that were used to transfer weapons to Lebanon.
In an interview with CNN, IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said the plan is to continue strikes in Iran for about three more weeks and that the target bank still includes thousands of additional sites.
However, the campaign is being carried out in close coordination with the United States, meaning the mechanism for ending the conflict will likely also be influenced by Washington.